Sport Picks
Match Events
12'
12'
Arficho H.
AI Match Summary
Hadiya Hossana in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hadiya Hossana.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
30%
35%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Hadiya Hossana have won more games recently than Arba Menche.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Arba Menche Clean Sheet 25%
Hadiya Hossana Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arba Menche | Hadiya Hossana |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 11 |
| Losses | 13 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 9, 2026 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Hadiya Hossana
0:1
Nov 27, 2025 Premier League
Hadiya Hossana vs Arba Menche
1:1
Jun 23, 2025 Premier League
Hadiya Hossana vs Arba Menche
0:1
Feb 4, 2025 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Hadiya Hossana
3:3
Apr 14, 2023 Premier League
Hadiya Hossana vs Arba Menche
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arba Menche Compare
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Hadiya Hossana Compare
Top Goalscorer Arficho H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arba Menche 33 / 100
Hadiya Hossana 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arba Menche Hadiya Hossana
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Hadiya Hossana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hadiya Hossana let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Arba Menche's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Arba Menche went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arba Menche VS Hadiya Hossana
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Arba Menche
(Home) 01 Jul
Dire Dawa
2 : 1 Arba Menche
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
15 Jun
Arba Menche
2 : 0 Shire Endaselassie
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
Page 1 of 6
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
15 Jun
Arba Menche
2 : 0 Shire Endaselassie
21 May
Arba Menche
0 : 3 Sidama Bunna
10 May
Arba Menche
2 : 3 Welayta Dicha
30 Apr
Arba Menche
0 : 0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
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Hadiya Hossana
(Away) 03 Jul
Mechal SC
0 : 0 Hadiya Hossana
27 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
1 : 1 Dire Dawa
22 Jun
Welwalo Adigrat
0 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
15 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 1 Fasil Kenema
29 May
Shire Endaselassie
1 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
Page 1 of 6
03 Jul
Mechal SC
0 : 0 Hadiya Hossana
22 Jun
Welwalo Adigrat
0 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
29 May
Shire Endaselassie
1 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
14 May
Sidama Bunna
0 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
04 May
Welayta Dicha
1 : 0 Hadiya Hossana
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
