Sport Picks
Arba Menche vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Ethiopia
Premier League 
AI Match Summary
Arba Menche play Negele Arsi Ketema FC in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arba Menche averaged 1 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Negele Arsi Ketema FC averaged 1 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. In past meetings, Arba Menche won 0, Negele Arsi Ketema FC won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Arba Menche and 1.06 for Negele Arsi Ketema FC. This points to a Negele Arsi Ketema FC double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Negele Arsi Ketema FC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Arba Menche.
- Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
- League standings and seasonal metrics in Premier League provide steady trend data.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arba Menche | Negele Arsi Ketema FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 12 |
| Draws | 10 | 11 |
| Losses | 13 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arba Menche Compare
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arba Menche scored in 53% of their last 30 games.
Negele Arsi Ketema FC let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Arba Menche went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Negele Arsi Ketema FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |