Sport Picks
Arba Menche vs Welwalo Adigrat
Ethiopia
Premier League 2025/2026 
Match Events
7'
7'
Haftey S.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Arba Menche and Welwalo Adigrat finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Welwalo Adigrat.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
15%
53%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Welwalo Adigrat
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Arba Menche haven't matched Welwalo Adigrat's recent run of results.
- Welwalo Adigrat are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Arba Menche Clean Sheet 22%
Welwalo Adigrat Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arba Menche | Welwalo Adigrat |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 7 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 13 |
| Losses | 13 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.87 | 1.09 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 26, 2026 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Welwalo Adigrat
0:1
Feb 1, 2026 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Arba Menche
1:2
May 23, 2025 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Arba Menche
1:1
Nov 23, 2024 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Welwalo Adigrat
2:0
Apr 25, 2018 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Arba Menche
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arba Menche Compare
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Welwalo Adigrat Compare
Top Goalscorer Haftey S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arba Menche 21 / 100
Welwalo Adigrat 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arba Menche Welwalo Adigrat
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Welwalo Adigrat Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Arba Menche found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).
Welwalo Adigrat let in goals in 56% of their last 32 matches.
Recent resilience: Arba Menche stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arba Menche VS Welwalo Adigrat
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Arba Menche
(Home) 01 Jul
Dire Dawa
2 : 1 Arba Menche
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
15 Jun
Arba Menche
2 : 0 Shire Endaselassie
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
Page 1 of 6
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
15 Jun
Arba Menche
2 : 0 Shire Endaselassie
21 May
Arba Menche
0 : 3 Sidama Bunna
10 May
Arba Menche
2 : 3 Welayta Dicha
30 Apr
Arba Menche
0 : 0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Page 1 of 4
Welwalo Adigrat
(Away) 12 Sept
Welwalo Adigrat
3 : 1 Hilal Alsahil
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2 Welwalo Adigrat
02 Jul
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1 St. Georges
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 7
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2 Welwalo Adigrat
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
16 Jun
Sheger Ketema FC
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
21 May
Adama City
0 : 0 Welwalo Adigrat
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
