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Arbroath vs Raith

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 Gayfield Park, Arbroath
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Watson C.
45' Event
MacIntyre J.
Assist: Marshall F.
57'
Sub
Nsio P. In: Brown S.
Out: Nsio P.

AI Match Summary

Arbroath in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arbroath.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Arbroath
20%
Draws
51%
Raith
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Raith

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Raith lately — more wins on the board than Arbroath.
  • Win probability leans Raith's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 15%
Raith Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arbroath Raith
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 9 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.27 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Raith
2:1
Jan 10, 2026 Championship
Raith vs Arbroath
2:3
Nov 22, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs Raith
0:0
Sep 27, 2025 Championship
Raith vs Arbroath
3:0
May 3, 2024 Championship
Raith vs Arbroath
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arbroath Compare

Top Goalscorer MacIntyre J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marshall F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Raith Compare

Top Goalscorer Montagu K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arbroath 23 / 100
Raith 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arbroath Raith

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RAI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Arbroath scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Raith conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Arbroath remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arbroath VS Raith
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Arbroath

(Home)
08 Aug
Arbroath
0 : 0
Inverness
01 Aug
Ayr
2 : 0
Arbroath
25 Jul
Arbroath
1 : 0
Stirling
21 Jul
Arbroath
0 : 2
Montrose
18 Jul
Dundee Utd
3 : 0
Arbroath
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Raith

(Away)
08 Aug
Queen's Park
1 : 2
Raith
01 Aug
Raith
1 : 1
Stenhousemuir
24 Jul
Raith
0 : 1
Hearts
21 Jul
Raith
1 : 0
Peterhead
18 Jul
Hamilton
2 : 1
Raith
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St Johnstone 36 22 11 3 67:25 77
2 Partick 36 17 15 4 53:36 66
3 Arbroath 36 13 13 10 43:41 52
4 Dunfermline 36 14 9 13 52:41 51
5 Raith 36 12 9 15 43:42 45
6 Queen's Park 36 9 14 13 35:48 41
7 Ayr 36 8 15 13 38:47 39
8 Morton 36 8 14 14 36:52 38
9 Airdrieonians 36 8 12 16 35:49 36
10 Ross County 36 8 10 18 36:57 34
Promotion - Premiership (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Relegation - Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - League One (Main)