Sport Picks

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Arda vs Cherno More

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League Arena Arda, Kardzhali
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Karagaren B. In: Vutov A.
Out: Karagaren B.
62'
Vutov A.
63'
Sub
Bachev P. In: Nikolov G.
Out: Bachev P.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this efbet League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Arda
30%
Draws
29%
Cherno More
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Arda lately — more wins on the board than Cherno More.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Arda taking it.
  • Regular efbet League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Arda Clean Sheet 68%
Cherno More Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arda Cherno More
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.23 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Cherno More
1:1
May 25, 2026 efbet League
Cherno More vs Arda
2:3
May 3, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Cherno More
0:0
Mar 4, 2026 efbet League
Cherno More vs Arda
0:0
Dec 12, 2025 Bulgarian Cup
Cherno More vs Arda
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arda Compare

Top Goalscorer Vutov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cherno More Compare

Top Goalscorer Lazarov G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arda 77 / 100
Cherno More 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arda Cherno More

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arda's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cherno More conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Arda remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arda VS Cherno More
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Arda

(Home)
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1
Cherno More
12 Sept
CSKA Sofia
4 : 1
Arda
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0
Botev Vratsa
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
Page 1 of 7

Cherno More

(Away)
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1
Cherno More
11 Sept
Cherno More
2 : 2
Lok. Sofia
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
30 Aug
CSKA Sofia
3 : 1
Cherno More
21 Aug
Cherno More
3 : 1
Dunav Ruse
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 9 8 1 0 21:4 25
2 CSKA Sofia 10 7 3 0 24:7 24
3 Ludogorets 9 7 2 0 16:7 23
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 10 7 1 2 19:10 22
5 Arda 10 5 2 3 15:12 17
6 Botev Plovdiv 10 5 1 4 16:14 16
7 Slavia Sofia 10 2 5 3 9:8 11
8 Spartak Varna 10 2 4 4 10:15 10
9 Botev Vratsa 10 2 3 5 9:19 9
10 Septemvri Sofia 10 2 2 6 8:18 8
11 Lok. Sofia 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
12 Lok. Plovdiv 10 2 1 7 5:13 7
13 Cherno More 10 1 3 6 11:20 6
14 Dunav Ruse 10 1 2 7 10:19 5
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)