Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Bulgarian Cup Arena Arda, Kardzhali
Arda Logo

Arda

0 - 4
FT
Lok. Plovdiv Logo

Lok. Plovdiv

Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Cova A.
46'
Velkovski D.
50'
Kovachev S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 0-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Arda
15%
Draws
17%
Lok. Plovdiv
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Lok. Plovdiv haven't matched Arda's recent run of results.
  • Arda are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Arda have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Arda, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Arda Clean Sheet 68%
Lok. Plovdiv Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arda Lok. Plovdiv
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.24 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
0:1
Jul 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
May 16, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Plovdiv
4:0
May 8, 2026 efbet League
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
2:0
Apr 30, 2026 Bulgarian Cup
Lok. Plovdiv vs Arda
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Lok. Plovdiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Itu C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Idriz S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arda 95 / 100
Lok. Plovdiv 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arda Lok. Plovdiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arda scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Lok. Plovdiv's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Arda has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arda VS Lok. Plovdiv
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arda

(Home)
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0
Botev Vratsa
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
17 Aug
Arda
3 : 1
Lok. Sofia
08 Aug
Dunav Ruse
0 : 2
Arda
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Lok. Plovdiv

(Away)
06 Sept
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 0
Cherno More
28 Aug
CSKA 1948 Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
24 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
0 : 1
Arda
16 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv
1 : 2
Dunav Ruse
07 Aug
Levski Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Bdin Vidin 2
Etar 1
TBD -
Dobrudzha -
Zagorets -
TBD -
TBD -
Botev Vratsa -
Partizan Cerven Brjag 0
Minyor Pernik 2
TBD -
Cherno More -
Germaneya 0
Fratria 4
TBD -
Arda -
Benkovski 0
Dunav Ruse 4
TBD -
Lok. Plovdiv -
Septemvri Tervel 0
Marek 3
TBD -
Montana -
Yambol 1915 2
Vihren 1
TBD -
Spartak Varna -
OFC Haskovo 0
Spartak Pleven 4
TBD -
Botev Plovdiv -
Botev Novi Pazar 1
Svoge 4
TBD -
Septemvri Sofia -
FC Lovech 0
Chernomorets 1919 5
TBD -
Ludogorets -
Pernik 1
Hebar 8
TBD -
Levski Sofia -
Bistritsa 2
Gorna 1
TBD -
Beroe -
Chernolomets 2
Sevlievo 4
TBD -
CSKA Sofia -
Rilski Sportist 2
Belasitsa Petrich 1
TBD -
Lok. Sofia -
Spartak Plovdiv 2
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1
TBD -
Slavia Sofia -
Kom Berkovitsa 0
Yantra Gabrovo 1
TBD -
CSKA 1948 Sofia -
1/16-finals
Bdin Vidin 2
Dobrudzha 7
Zagorets 1
Botev Vratsa 4
Minyor Pernik 0
Cherno More 3
Fratria 1
Arda 2
Dunav Ruse 1
Lok. Plovdiv 2
Marek 1
Montana 4
Yambol 1915 1
Spartak Varna 3
Spartak Pleven 0
Botev Plovdiv 4
Svoge 0
Septemvri Sofia 2
Chernomorets 1919 2
Ludogorets 3
Hebar 0
Levski Sofia 3
Bistritsa 1
Beroe 0
Sevlievo 1
CSKA Sofia 2
Rilski Sportist 2
Lok. Sofia 3
Spartak Plovdiv 1
Slavia Sofia 2
Yantra Gabrovo 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia 4
1/8-finals
Dobrudzha 0
Botev Vratsa 1
Cherno More 0
Arda 3
Lok. Plovdiv 4
Montana 0
Spartak Varna 0
Botev Plovdiv 2
Septemvri Sofia 1
Ludogorets 3
Levski Sofia 3
Bistritsa 0
CSKA Sofia 2
Lok. Sofia 1
Slavia Sofia 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia 3
Quarter-finals
Botev Vratsa 2
Arda 3
Lok. Plovdiv 1
Botev Plovdiv 0
Ludogorets 1
Levski Sofia 0
CSKA Sofia 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia 0
Semi-finals
Arda 1
Lok. Plovdiv 5
Ludogorets 1
CSKA Sofia 2
Final
Lok. Plovdiv 1
CSKA Sofia 2