Sport Picks
Arda vs Lok. Sofia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Bulgaria
efbet League Arena Arda, Kardzhali 
Match Events
3'
3'
Bachev P.
20'
20'
Papazov M.
31'
31'
Ivanov S.
Assist: Kovachev S.
AI Match Summary
Arda in this efbet League matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arda.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lok. Sofia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Arda have won more games recently than Lok. Sofia.
- Win probability leans Lok. Sofia's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Arda Clean Sheet 16%
Lok. Sofia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arda | Lok. Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 27 |
| Wins | 13 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 11 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 1.44 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 17, 2026 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Sofia
3:1
Nov 28, 2025 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Arda
0:0
Jul 27, 2025 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Sofia
1:1
Apr 13, 2025 efbet League
Arda vs Lok. Sofia
5:0
Nov 2, 2024 efbet League
Lok. Sofia vs Arda
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arda Compare
Top Goalscorer Ivanov S.
2 Goals Assists Leader Kovachev S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Lok. Sofia Compare
Top Goalscorer Caue Caruzo
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arda 10 / 100
Lok. Sofia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arda Lok. Sofia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lok. Sofia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lok. Sofia let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.
Attacking prowess: Arda scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Arda went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arda VS Lok. Sofia
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Arda
(Home) 18 Oct
Spartak Plovdiv
1 : 2 Arda
12 Oct
Ludogorets
5 : 0 Arda
02 Oct
Lok. Plovdiv
2 : 0 Arda
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1 Cherno More
12 Sept
CSKA Sofia
4 : 1 Arda
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Arda
1 : 1 Cherno More
04 Sept
Arda
2 : 3 Botev Plovdiv
31 Aug
Arda
2 : 0 Botev Vratsa
17 Aug
Arda
3 : 1 Lok. Sofia
24 Jul
Arda
1 : 0 Slavia Sofia
Page 1 of 3
Lok. Sofia
(Away) 17 Oct
Vihren
1 : 2 Lok. Sofia
10 Oct
Lok. Sofia
1 : 1 Lok. Plovdiv
03 Oct
Lok. Sofia
4 : 1 Radnicki Nis
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1 Lok. Sofia
16 Sept
Lok. Sofia
0 : 2 CSKA Sofia
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Vihren
1 : 2 Lok. Sofia
20 Sept
Spartak Varna
0 : 1 Lok. Sofia
11 Sept
Cherno More
2 : 2 Lok. Sofia
31 Aug
Dunav Ruse
2 : 2 Lok. Sofia
17 Aug
Arda
3 : 1 Lok. Sofia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23:4 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27:9 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21:7 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:13 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:14 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15:17 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11:15 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9:20 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13:21 | 8 |
| 11 | Lok. Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6:14 | 8 |
| 12 | Lok. Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12:19 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10:21 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11:22 | 6 |
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)
