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Neftchi Fargona

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arda play Neftchi Fargona in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arda averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Neftchi Fargona averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. In past meetings, Arda won 1, Neftchi Fargona won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 29, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.58 for Arda and 1.38 for Neftchi Fargona. This points to a Neftchi Fargona double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Arda

18%

Draws

43%

Neftchi Fargona

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Neftchi Fargona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Arda picked up more points recently compared to Neftchi Fargona.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.58 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Arda Clean Sheet 17%

Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 21%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Arda	Neftchi Fargona
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	14	20
Draws	7	3
Losses	8	5
Goals Scored	1.31	1.89
Goals Conceded	1.03	0.71
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 29, 2026 Club Friendly

Arda vs Neftchi Fargona

Possession: 42% - 41% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arda 39 / 100

Neftchi Fargona 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Arda Neftchi Fargona

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Neftchi Fargona or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arda attacking → ← attacking Neftchi Fargona

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arda scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Neftchi Fargona let in goals in 50% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Arda went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Neftchi Fargona lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 63

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.17