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Arema FC vs Persebaya

Indonesia Indonesia

Super League Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Yama H.
40'
Firmansyah T.
49' Event
Rivera F.
Assist: Perovic M.

AI Match Summary

Arema FC host Persebaya in the Super League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Arema FC have averaged 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded recently, against Persebaya's 1.63 scored and 1.25 conceded. Head-to-head, Arema FC have won 0 to Persebaya's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 28, 2026, ending 0:4. xG projections (1.25 - 1.69) back Persebaya to edge this. Persebaya in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Arema FC
6%
Draws
90%
Persebaya
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Persebaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Persebaya has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Arema FC.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Persebaya.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Super League provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Arema FC Clean Sheet 13%
Persebaya Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arema FC Persebaya
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 10
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.25 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Super League
Arema FC vs Persebaya
0:4
Nov 22, 2025 Super League
Persebaya vs Arema FC
1:1
Apr 28, 2025 Super League
Arema FC vs Persebaya
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Super League
Persebaya vs Arema FC
3:2
Mar 27, 2024 Super League
Arema FC vs Persebaya
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arema FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Persebaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivera F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Junio da Silva J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arema FC 10 / 100
Persebaya 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arema FC Persebaya

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arema FC scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Persebaya let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Arema FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Persebaya lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arema FC VS Persebaya
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Persib Bandung34247359:2279
2Borneo34254574:3179
3Persija Jakarta34225765:2971
4Persebaya341610861:3558
5FC Bhayangkara341651353:4553
6Malut United341581168:5353
7Dewa United341651344:3753
8Bali United341491157:4851
9Arema FC341391253:4748
10Persita341361538:3745
11PSIM Yogyakarta3411121143:4445
12Persik Kediri341161742:6139
13Persijap Jepara34991631:4536
14Madura United34981737:5435
15PSM Makassar348101639:4934
16Persis Solo348101639:5934
17Semen Padang34552422:6520
18PSBS Biak Numfor34462431:9518