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Arenal vs Alaior

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Tercera Division - Group 11 2010/2011
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 11 2010/2011 game between Arenal and Alaior finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arenal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Arenal
30%
Draws
23%
Alaior
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arenal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Alaior carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 11 2010/2011 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Arenal Clean Sheet 18%
Alaior Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenal Alaior
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 5 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 0.89 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Arenal vs Alaior
0:1
Nov 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Alaior vs Arenal
2:1
Jan 29, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Arenal vs Alaior
2:0
Sep 18, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Alaior vs Arenal
0:2
Apr 24, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Arenal vs Alaior
1:6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenal 32 / 100
Alaior 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenal Alaior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenal found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Alaior let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Alaior has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arenal VS Alaior
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenal

(Home)
19 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 2
Arenal
12 Sept
Arenal
1 : 2
Alcudia
05 Sept
Constancia
3 : 0
Arenal
11 May
Llosetense
3 : 0
Arenal
05 May
Arenal
2 : 2
Alcudia
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Alaior

(Away)
12 May
Alaior
1 : 1
Portmany
04 May
Mallorca B
2 : 1
Alaior
01 May
Alaior
0 : 3
UD Poblense
27 Apr
Constancia
1 : 0
Alaior
21 Apr
Alaior
0 : 0
Collerense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manacor 38 23 10 5 51:23 79
2 UD Poblense 38 24 6 8 71:44 78
3 Constancia 38 23 9 6 62:25 78
4 Binissalem 38 22 10 6 63:30 76
5 Llosetense 38 23 6 9 70:44 75
6 Pena Deportiva 38 19 12 7 53:25 69
7 Santanyi 38 18 9 11 53:43 63
8 El Espinar Sant Rafel 38 12 18 8 47:36 54
9 Mercadal 38 14 10 14 55:45 52
10 Collerense 38 12 11 15 40:49 47
11 CD Montuiri 38 13 7 18 46:58 46
12 Ferriolense 38 12 8 18 48:55 44
13 Campos 38 10 14 14 43:52 44
14 Alcudia 38 11 10 17 43:61 43
15 Felanitx 38 11 9 18 36:56 42
16 CD Ferrerias 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Alaior 38 10 8 20 35:61 38
18 Penya Arrabal 38 8 3 27 45:78 27
19 Norteno CF 38 7 6 25 24:56 27
20 Arenal 38 6 7 25 32:66 25
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)