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Arenteiro vs AD Merida

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio de Espiñedo, Ourense
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Capitas M.
23'
Moya P.
28'
Pareja L.

AI Match Summary

The Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Arenteiro and AD Merida finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Merida.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Arenteiro
33%
Draws
40%
AD Merida
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: AD Merida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Merida come out ahead of Arenteiro on wins alone.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on AD Merida taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Arenteiro Clean Sheet 19%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenteiro AD Merida
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 4 9
Draws 7 8
Losses 19 11
Goals Scored 0.25 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Arenteiro vs AD Merida
0:2
Oct 18, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Arenteiro
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenteiro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

AD Merida Compare

Top Goalscorer Capitas M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lancho J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenteiro 28 / 100
AD Merida 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenteiro AD Merida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Merida's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: AD Merida has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Arenteiro scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Arenteiro VS AD Merida
0.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenteiro

(Home)
23 May
Lugo
0 : 0
Arenteiro
17 May
Arenteiro
0 : 1
Ponferradina
09 May
Guadalajara
2 : 0
Arenteiro
03 May
Arenteiro
0 : 4
Cacereno
25 Apr
Osasuna B
1 : 0
Arenteiro
Page 1 of 6

AD Merida

(Away)
28 Jul
AD Merida
0 : 2
Al Nassr
25 Jul
Benfica B
4 : 0
AD Merida
23 May
Osasuna B
1 : 2
AD Merida
17 May
AD Merida
1 : 1
Unionistas de Salamanca
09 May
Barakaldo
2 : 0
AD Merida
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tenerife382210662:2476
2Celta Vigo B381811961:4865
3Zamora3817101153:4261
4Ponferradina381791243:3360
5Real Madrid B3816101261:5258
6Pontevedra381416849:3158
7Barakaldo3815131051:3858
8Unionistas de Salamanca3815111253:4956
9Lugo3813141136:4053
10AD Merida3814101447:5352
11Arenas Getxo381571646:5552
12Racing Club Ferrol3813101541:4749
13Ath Bilbao B3813101538:4649
14Real Aviles3811111655:6744
15Cacereno3810141442:4944
16CF Talavera3811101738:4743
17Ourense CF3810131544:4743
18Guadalajara3810111744:5841
19Osasuna B3810101828:4240
20Arenteiro386102229:5328
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)