Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arenteiro vs AD Merida

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio de Espiñedo, Ourense
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Capitas M.
23'
Moya P.
28'
Pareja L.

AI Match Summary

The Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Arenteiro and AD Merida finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Merida.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Arenteiro
20%
Draws
70%
AD Merida
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Merida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Merida come out ahead of Arenteiro on wins alone.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on AD Merida taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Arenteiro Clean Sheet 26%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenteiro AD Merida
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 9
Draws 6 8
Losses 19 12
Goals Scored 0.79 1
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Arenteiro vs AD Merida
0:2
Oct 18, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Arenteiro
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenteiro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

AD Merida Compare

Top Goalscorer Capitas M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lancho J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenteiro 30 / 100
AD Merida 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenteiro AD Merida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Merida Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Merida's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Arenteiro found the back of the net in 48% of recent matches (29 games).

Arenteiro went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arenteiro VS AD Merida
0.17 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
33% Over 1.5 100%
17% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenteiro

(Home)
13 Sept
Portonovo SD
2 : 1
Arenteiro
06 Sept
Arenteiro
0 : 1
Barco
23 May
Lugo
0 : 0
Arenteiro
17 May
Arenteiro
0 : 1
Ponferradina
09 May
Guadalajara
2 : 0
Arenteiro
Page 1 of 6

AD Merida

(Away)
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4
Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0
AD Merida
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
22 Aug
AD Merida
0 : 0
Recreativo Huelva
14 Aug
AD Merida
2 : 1
Alcorcon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tenerife 38 22 10 6 62:24 76
2 Celta Vigo B 38 18 11 9 61:48 65
3 Zamora 38 17 10 11 53:42 61
4 Ponferradina 38 17 9 12 43:33 60
5 Real Madrid B 38 16 10 12 61:52 58
6 Pontevedra 38 14 16 8 49:31 58
7 Barakaldo 38 15 13 10 51:38 58
8 Unionistas de Salamanca 38 15 11 12 53:49 56
9 Lugo 38 13 14 11 36:40 53
10 AD Merida 38 14 10 14 47:53 52
11 Arenas Getxo 38 15 7 16 46:55 52
12 Racing Club Ferrol 38 13 10 15 41:47 49
13 Ath Bilbao B 38 13 10 15 38:46 49
14 Real Aviles 38 11 11 16 55:67 44
15 Cacereno 38 10 14 14 42:49 44
16 CF Talavera 38 11 10 17 38:47 43
17 Ourense CF 38 10 13 15 44:47 43
18 Guadalajara 38 10 11 17 44:58 41
19 Osasuna B 38 10 10 18 28:42 40
20 Arenteiro 38 6 10 22 29:53 28
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)