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Arenteiro vs Ponferradina

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio de Espiñedo, Ourense
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Sanchez J.
34' Event
Ivanov B.
36'
Sub
Frimpong E. In: San Emeterio F.
Out: Frimpong E.

AI Match Summary

The Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Arenteiro and Ponferradina finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ponferradina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Arenteiro
39%
Draws
30%
Ponferradina
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Ponferradina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Arenteiro Clean Sheet 18%
Ponferradina Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenteiro Ponferradina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 14
Draws 7 8
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 0.25 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Arenteiro vs Ponferradina
0:1
Dec 13, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs Arenteiro
1:3
Mar 15, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Arenteiro vs Ponferradina
0:1
Sep 22, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs Arenteiro
1:2
Aug 6, 2024 Club Friendly
Arenteiro vs Ponferradina
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenteiro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Ponferradina Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivanov B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenteiro 32 / 100
Ponferradina 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenteiro Ponferradina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Arenteiro scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Ponferradina let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Arenteiro has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arenteiro VS Ponferradina
0.25 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenteiro

(Home)
23 May
Lugo
0 : 0
Arenteiro
17 May
Arenteiro
0 : 1
Ponferradina
09 May
Guadalajara
2 : 0
Arenteiro
03 May
Arenteiro
0 : 4
Cacereno
25 Apr
Osasuna B
1 : 0
Arenteiro
Page 1 of 6

Ponferradina

(Away)
29 Jul
Real Oviedo
4 : 0
Ponferradina
20 Jun
Celta Vigo B
4 : 1
Ponferradina
13 Jun
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Celta Vigo B
06 Jun
Atl. Madrid B
0 : 1
Ponferradina
30 May
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Atl. Madrid B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tenerife382210662:2476
2Celta Vigo B381811961:4865
3Zamora3817101153:4261
4Ponferradina381791243:3360
5Real Madrid B3816101261:5258
6Pontevedra381416849:3158
7Barakaldo3815131051:3858
8Unionistas de Salamanca3815111253:4956
9Lugo3813141136:4053
10AD Merida3814101447:5352
11Arenas Getxo381571646:5552
12Racing Club Ferrol3813101541:4749
13Ath Bilbao B3813101538:4649
14Real Aviles3811111655:6744
15Cacereno3810141442:4944
16CF Talavera3811101738:4743
17Ourense CF3810131544:4743
18Guadalajara3810111744:5841
19Osasuna B3810101828:4240
20Arenteiro386102229:5328
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)