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Argentina vs Colombia

South America South America

Copa América Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Mon, Jul 15, 2024
1 - 0
01:20 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Cordoba J.
61'
Mac Allister A.
66'
Sub
Messi L. In: Gonzalez N.
Out: Messi L.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Argentina
15%
Draws
39%
Colombia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Argentina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Argentina have won more games recently than Colombia.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Argentina taking it.
  • Argentina have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Argentina, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Argentina Clean Sheet 68%
Colombia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Argentina Colombia
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 22 16
Draws 2 6
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 2.25 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.61 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2025 World Championship
Argentina vs Colombia
1:1
Sep 10, 2024 World Championship
Colombia vs Argentina
2:1
Jul 15, 2024 Copa América
Argentina vs Colombia
1:0
Feb 1, 2022 World Championship
Argentina vs Colombia
1:0
Jul 7, 2021 Copa América
Argentina vs Colombia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Argentina Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Colombia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Argentina 59 / 100
Colombia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Argentina Colombia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Argentina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Argentina scored in 93% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Argentina remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Colombia has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Argentina VS Colombia
2.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Argentina

(Home)
19 Jul
Spain
1 : 0
Argentina
15 Jul
England
1 : 2
Argentina
12 Jul
Argentina
3 : 1
Switzerland
07 Jul
Argentina
3 : 2
Egypt
03 Jul
Argentina
3 : 2
Cape Verde
Page 1 of 6

Colombia

(Away)
07 Jul
Switzerland
1 : 0
Colombia
04 Jul
Colombia
1 : 0
Ghana
27 Jun
Colombia
0 : 0
Portugal
24 Jun
Colombia
1 : 0
D.R. Congo
18 Jun
Uzbekistan
1 : 3
Colombia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Argentina 2
Ecuador 1
Venezuela 1
Canada 2
Uruguay 1
Brazil 0
Colombia 5
Panama 0
Semi-finals
Argentina 2
Canada 0
Uruguay 0
Colombia 1
Final
Argentina 1
Colombia 0
Canada 2
Uruguay 3