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Arguvan vs Aliaga

Turkey Turkey

3. Lig Group 1 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arguvan play Aliaga in the 3. Lig Group 1 2023/2024. Aliaga are favorites here. Recently, Arguvan averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. Aliaga averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. In past meetings, Arguvan won 0, Aliaga won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 17, 2024 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Arguvan and 1.68 for Aliaga. This points to a Aliaga double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Arguvan
18%
Draws
63%
Aliaga
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Aliaga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence
  • Arguvan picked up more points recently compared to Aliaga.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.68 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Arguvan Clean Sheet 13%
Aliaga Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arguvan Aliaga
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 5 16
Draws 3 8
Losses 22 8
Goals Scored 0.83 2.09
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.41

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 3. Lig Group 1
Arguvan vs Aliaga
0:2
Nov 5, 2023 3. Lig Group 1
Aliaga vs Arguvan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arguvan Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Aliaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanci O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Uysal M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arguvan 20 / 100
Aliaga 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arguvan Aliaga

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aliaga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Aliaga & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +72.7%
9.09
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arguvan attacking → ← attacking Aliaga

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arguvan scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Aliaga let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Arguvan went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Aliaga lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 56
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Kepez Bld.28224267:1870
2Aliaga28199060:1866
3Ayvalikgucu28157640:2552
452 Orduspor28147740:2849
5Inegol Kafkas28138737:3047
6Edirnespor Genclik281351045:2844
7Mardin 1969281251140:3441
8Kucukcekmece281081041:3138
9Karabuk Idmanyurdu281051327:4435
10Hopaspor28971233:2934
11Erciyes 38281041434:4534
12Kirikkale FK28851531:4229
13Gumushanespor284101425:4922
14Arguvan28342121:5713
15Tarsus28242220:8310