Sport Picks
Match Events
53'
53'
Khaoui A.
(Penalty)
58'
58'
Louhichi A.
84'
84'
Meriah H.
Penalty Missed
AI Match Summary
The Ligue 2 game between Ariana and Stade Gabesien finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
24%
35%
41%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Stade Gabesien
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Stade Gabesien come out ahead of Ariana on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Stade Gabesien's way, sitting at 40%.
- Regular Ligue 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Stade Gabesien have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Ariana Clean Sheet 15%
Stade Gabesien Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ariana | Stade Gabesien |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 34 |
| Wins | 8 | 19 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 13 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 0.71 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 27, 2026 Ligue 2
Ariana vs Stade Gabesien
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Ligue 2
Ariana vs Stade Gabesien
0:2
Nov 12, 2025 Ligue 2
Stade Gabesien vs Ariana
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ariana Compare
Top Goalscorer Louhichi A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Stade Gabesien Compare
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ariana 27 / 100
Stade Gabesien 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ariana Stade Gabesien
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Stade Gabesien Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 2.33 goals.
Recent resilience: Ariana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Ariana scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.
Stade Gabesien's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 34 matches.
Scoring Trends
Ariana VS Stade Gabesien
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Ariana
(Home) 27 Sept
Ariana
1 : 1 Stade Gabesien
16 Aug
Club Africain
2 : 0 Ariana
12 May
Moknine
1 : 1 Ariana
02 May
Ariana
1 : 1 Gafsa
28 Apr
Bouchamma
5 : 0 Ariana
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Ariana
1 : 1 Stade Gabesien
02 May
Ariana
1 : 1 Gafsa
19 Apr
Ariana
3 : 0 Sidi Bouzid
29 Mar
Ariana
1 : 0 Ksour Essef
21 Feb
Ariana
0 : 2 Stade Gabesien
Page 1 of 3
Stade Gabesien
(Away) 27 Sept
Ariana
1 : 1 Stade Gabesien
30 May
Hammam-Lif
3 : 0 Stade Gabesien
25 May
Stade Gabesien
2 : 0 US Tataouine
20 May
CS Sfaxien
2 : 1 Stade Gabesien
12 May
Djelma
0 : 0 Stade Gabesien
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Ariana
1 : 1 Stade Gabesien
30 May
Hammam-Lif
3 : 0 Stade Gabesien
20 May
CS Sfaxien
2 : 1 Stade Gabesien
12 May
Djelma
0 : 0 Stade Gabesien
28 Apr
Kasserine
1 : 1 Stade Gabesien
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soliman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Msaken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Sfax Railways | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 | EM Mahdia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 | BS Bouhajla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 | Megrine | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 | AS Agareb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 | Stade Soussien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 | AS Gabes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 | ES Beni-Khalled | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 | Sporting Ben Arous | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 12 | Kerkennah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 | Chebba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 | US Tataouine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | 0 |
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redeyef | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Kasserine | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Kalaa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 | JS Kairouan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 | Bouchamma | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Stade Gabesien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 | Ariana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 | Olympique Kef | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 | Ksour Essef | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 | Gafsa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 | CO Medenine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 12 | Jendouba Sport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 | Korba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 | Moknine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | 0 |
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)
