Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ariana vs Stade Gabesien

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue 2
Sat, Feb 21, 2026
0 - 2
12:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Ouerfelli M.
65' Event
Mejri A.
83'
Oudi I.

AI Match Summary

Ariana host Stade Gabesien in the Ligue 2. This one's hard to separate. Stade Gabesien have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Ariana have conceded 1.43 and scored 1.14. Past meetings favor Stade Gabesien slightly — 0-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 21, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (1.07 xG vs 1.78) point toward Stade Gabesien. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ariana
30%
Draws
34%
Stade Gabesien
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ariana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Stade Gabesien lately — more wins on the board than Ariana.
  • Win probability leans Ariana's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Ariana Clean Sheet 68%
Stade Gabesien Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ariana Stade Gabesien
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 8 19
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.14 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.43 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.43 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Ligue 2
Ariana vs Stade Gabesien
0:2
Nov 12, 2025 Ligue 2
Stade Gabesien vs Ariana
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ariana Compare

Top Goalscorer Ouerfelli M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mejri A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Stade Gabesien Compare

Top Goalscorer Ben Zine C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ariana 46 / 100
Stade Gabesien 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ariana Stade Gabesien

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ariana scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Ariana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Stade Gabesien conceded in 55% of 33 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ariana VS Stade Gabesien
1.14 Goals Scored 2.13
1.43 Goals Conceded 1
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hamam-Sousse26156540:1951
2Hammam-Lif26156536:1451
3US Tataouine26156534:1651
4Sfax Railways26137635:2646
5Sporting Ben Arous26810830:1934
6Kerkennah26810827:2734
7Chebba2689933:3733
8Msaken26710923:2831
9BS Bouhajla26791021:2330
10Megrine26791025:3530
11EM Mahdia266101018:2528
12AS Agareb26771222:3328
13Bousalem26671319:3425
14Menzel Bourguiba26381515:4217
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PS Sakiet Eddaier26168254:1556
2Stade Gabesien26158343:1653
3Kasserine26145731:1847
4Jendouba Sport26911634:2438
5Korba26910721:2037
6Bouchamma2698935:3035
7Gafsa26971028:3134
8Ariana26881026:3232
9Ksour Essef26951240:3432
10Redeyef26881027:3932
11Kalaa26931428:4430
12Moknine26781129:3629
13Djelma26681216:3326
14Sidi Bouzid26351817:5714