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Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze

Poland Poland

Polish Cup 2025/2026 Stadion Miejski w Gdyni
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AI Match Summary

Arka Gdynia play Gornik Zabrze in the Polish Cup 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arka Gdynia averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. Gornik Zabrze averaged 1.61 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Arka Gdynia won 1, Gornik Zabrze won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 13, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Arka Gdynia and 2.06 for Gornik Zabrze. This points to a Gornik Zabrze double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Arka Gdynia
21%
Draws
49%
Gornik Zabrze
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Gornik Zabrze

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Arka Gdynia picked up more points recently compared to Gornik Zabrze.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 2.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Arka Gdynia Clean Sheet 10%
Gornik Zabrze Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arka Gdynia Gornik Zabrze
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 19
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.41 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.76 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 Ekstraklasa
Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze
0:0
Nov 2, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Gornik Zabrze vs Arka Gdynia
5:1
Oct 30, 2025 Polish Cup
Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze
1:2
Jul 13, 2021 Club Friendly
Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze
2:1
Jul 14, 2020 Ekstraklasa
Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arka Gdynia Compare

Top Goalscorer Espiau Hernandez E. D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Gornik Zabrze Compare

Top Goalscorer Ambros L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Szczesniak K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arka Gdynia 29 / 100
Gornik Zabrze 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arka Gdynia Gornik Zabrze

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gornik Zabrze or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arka Gdynia attacking → ← attacking Gornik Zabrze

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arka Gdynia scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Gornik Zabrze let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Arka Gdynia went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Gornik Zabrze lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 63
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75