Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

Division 1 Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Gdynia
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
1 - 0
01:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Gutkovskis V.
Assist: Gojny D.

AI Match Summary

Arka Gdynia host Polonia Warszawa in the Division 1. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Arka Gdynia at 1.41 goals for, 1.55 against; Polonia Warszawa at 1.43 for, 1.57 against. Head-to-head, Arka Gdynia have won 2 to Polonia Warszawa's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 14, 2025, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.31 - 1.44) back Arka Gdynia to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Arka Gdynia
20%
Draws
47%
Polonia Warszawa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Polonia Warszawa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Polonia Warszawa have won more games recently than Arka Gdynia.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Arka Gdynia taking it.
  • Regular Division 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Arka Gdynia Clean Sheet 16%
Polonia Warszawa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arka Gdynia Polonia Warszawa
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 13
Draws 7 3
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.41 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2025 Division 1
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
0:0
Aug 3, 2024 Division 1
Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia
0:3
Feb 17, 2024 Division 1
Polonia Warszawa vs Arka Gdynia
0:3
Aug 7, 2023 Division 1
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
2:3
Jan 19, 2013 Club Friendly
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arka Gdynia Compare

Top Goalscorer Gutkovskis V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Polonia Warszawa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arka Gdynia 36 / 100
Polonia Warszawa 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arka Gdynia Polonia Warszawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Polonia Warszawa has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Arka Gdynia found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Arka Gdynia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arka Gdynia VS Polonia Warszawa
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Arka Gdynia

(Home)
03 Oct
Arka Gdynia
3 : 2
IFK Goteborg
20 Sept
Pogon Siedlce
2 : 1
Arka Gdynia
12 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 0
Arka Gdynia
06 Sept
Arka Gdynia
1 : 1
LKS Lodz
02 Sept
R. Rzeszow
0 : 4
Arka Gdynia
Page 1 of 6

Polonia Warszawa

(Away)
03 Oct
Jagiellonia
1 : 2
Polonia Warszawa
19 Sept
Polonia Warszawa
2 : 0
Chrobry Glogow
11 Sept
Polonia Warszawa
2 : 2
Polonia Bytom
05 Sept
S. Rzeszow
2 : 1
Polonia Warszawa
02 Sept
Polkowice
0 : 1
Polonia Warszawa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 15:8 18
2 Termalica Bruk-Bet 9 5 1 3 14:12 16
3 Warta Poznan 9 5 0 4 17:13 15
4 LKS Lodz 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
5 Legnica 9 4 2 3 14:9 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
7 S. Rzeszow 9 4 2 3 10:15 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 17:15 13
9 Chrobry Glogow 9 3 3 3 11:8 12
10 Pogon Siedlce 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
11 Ruch Chorzow 9 3 3 3 9:11 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11:11 11
13 Podbeskidzie 10 1 8 1 13:14 11
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10:15 10
15 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 7:9 9
16 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 14:17 9
17 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 14:23 9
18 Puszcza 8 2 0 6 8:12 6
Promotion - Ekstraklasa 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)