Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arnstadt vs Freital

Germany Germany

Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Ranninger E.
58' Event
Martinez M.
67' Event
Hennig F.

AI Match Summary

Freital in this Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Freital.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Arnstadt
15%
Draws
57%
Freital
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Freital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Freital lately — more wins on the board than Arnstadt.
  • Freital are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Arnstadt Clean Sheet 10%
Freital Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arnstadt Freital
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 4 17
Draws 5 2
Losses 21 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.79
Goals Conceded 2.6 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2024 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Arnstadt vs Freital
1:3
Aug 5, 2023 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Freital vs Arnstadt
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arnstadt Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Freital Compare

Top Goalscorer Hennig F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ranninger E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arnstadt 10 / 100
Freital 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arnstadt Freital

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freital Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freital's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Freital lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Arnstadt found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Arnstadt VS Freital
2 Goals Scored 1.63
4 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arnstadt

(Home)
15 Jul
Einheit Rudolstadt
4 : 2
Arnstadt
09 Jul
Arnstadt
1 : 6
Einheit Rudolstadt
08 Jun
Arnstadt
0 : 6
Bischofswerdaer
02 Jun
Krieschow
3 : 1
Arnstadt
18 May
Sandersdorf
1 : 2
Arnstadt
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Freital

(Away)
29 Aug
Freital
1 : 3
Eilenburg
16 Aug
Freital
4 : 2
1.FC Frankfurt
09 Aug
Dresden II
1 : 0
Freital
30 May
Rsv Eintracht
2 : 1
Freital
17 May
Freital
2 : 0
Auerbach
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bischofswerdaer 30 21 7 2 78:33 70
2 Plauen 30 22 4 4 63:19 70
3 Halberstadt 30 18 6 6 71:45 60
4 Magdeburg II 30 17 4 9 70:43 55
5 Auerbach 30 17 4 9 64:38 55
6 Krieschow 30 14 4 12 59:52 46
7 Sandersdorf 30 13 3 14 49:46 42
8 Freital 30 12 4 14 43:46 40
9 Einheit Wernigerode 30 10 6 14 54:67 36
10 Bautzen 30 9 8 13 45:52 35
11 Einheit Rudolstadt 30 10 4 16 40:53 34
12 Grimma 30 9 5 16 40:63 32
13 Ludwigsfelder 30 8 7 15 39:50 31
14 Halle 30 8 6 16 47:62 30
15 Motor Marienberg 30 6 4 20 33:93 22
16 Arnstadt 30 5 6 19 35:68 21
Promotion - Regionalliga Nordost 2024/2025 (Main)