Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arouca vs Maritimo

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Arouca Logo

Arouca

2 - 1
FT
Maritimo Logo

Maritimo

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Tejon M.
44' Event
van Ee E.
Assist: Trezza A.
44'
Guzzo R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal game between Arouca and Maritimo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arouca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Arouca
35%
Draws
19%
Maritimo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arouca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Maritimo have managed 1.13 goals a game lately — Arouca are scoring more at 1.43.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Arouca taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Arouca Clean Sheet 68%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arouca Maritimo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 5 7
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.43 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Maritimo
2:1
Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Arouca vs Maritimo
4:1
Apr 8, 2023 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Maritimo
1:0
Oct 23, 2022 Liga Portugal
Maritimo vs Arouca
1:1
Feb 14, 2022 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Maritimo
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arouca Compare

Top Goalscorer van Ee E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barbero I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Maritimo Compare

Top Goalscorer Tejon M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arouca 95 / 100
Maritimo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arouca Maritimo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arouca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arouca scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Maritimo let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Arouca went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arouca VS Maritimo
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arouca

(Home)
19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2
Arouca
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2
Santa Clara
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0
Arouca
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0
Arouca
Page 1 of 6

Maritimo

(Away)
19 Sept
Gil Vicente
1 : 1
Maritimo
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1
Maritimo
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1
Maritimo
22 Aug
Maritimo
2 : 2
Academico Viseu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)