Sport Picks
Arouca vs Santa Clara
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca 
Match Events
22'
22'
Paciencia G.
Assist: Tavares J.
23'
23'
Sub
Gozalbez P. In: Flores M.
Out: Gozalbez P.
33'
33'
Fernandes E.
AI Match Summary
Santa Clara in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Clara.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
20%
52%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santa Clara
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Santa Clara average 1.52 goals a game right now, well clear of Arouca's 1.43.
- 52% — that's where the model lands on Santa Clara taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Arouca Clean Sheet 20%
Santa Clara Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arouca | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Santa Clara
1:2
Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Santa Clara vs Arouca
3:0
May 2, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Santa Clara
2:2
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Portugal
Santa Clara vs Arouca
0:0
Apr 26, 2025 Liga Portugal
Santa Clara vs Arouca
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arouca Compare
Top Goalscorer Barbero I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Santa Clara Compare
Top Goalscorer Paciencia G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tavares J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arouca 28 / 100
Santa Clara 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arouca Santa Clara
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Santa Clara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arouca scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Santa Clara let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Solid form: Arouca remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Arouca VS Santa Clara
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Arouca
(Home) 13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0 Arouca
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1 Maritimo
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Arouca
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1 Maritimo
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
16 May
Arouca
3 : 1 Tondela
02 May
Arouca
2 : 2 Santa Clara
Page 1 of 3
Santa Clara
(Away) 13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0 Rio Ave
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1 Santa Clara
23 Aug
Santa Clara
1 : 0 Famalicao
15 Aug
Academico Viseu
0 : 1 Santa Clara
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1 Santa Clara
15 Aug
Academico Viseu
0 : 1 Santa Clara
16 May
FC Porto
1 : 0 Santa Clara
02 May
Arouca
2 : 2 Santa Clara
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
