Sport Picks
Arouca vs Santa Clara
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca 
Match Events
5'
5'
Sanchez J.
8'
8'
Lee H.
Assist: Esgaio T.
10'
10'
Silva Vieira G.
Assist: Araujo S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
35%
38%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santa Clara
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
38%
/ Low Confidence
- Arouca have won more games recently than Santa Clara.
- Model gives Santa Clara a 38% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Arouca Clean Sheet 14%
Santa Clara Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arouca | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 25, 2026 Club Friendly
Santa Clara vs Arouca
3:0
May 2, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Santa Clara
2:2
Dec 21, 2025 Liga Portugal
Santa Clara vs Arouca
0:0
Apr 26, 2025 Liga Portugal
Santa Clara vs Arouca
2:0
Dec 15, 2024 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Santa Clara
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arouca Compare
Top Goalscorer Lee H.
1 Goals Assists Leader Esgaio T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Santa Clara Compare
Top Goalscorer Silva Vieira G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Elias Manoel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arouca 23 / 100
Santa Clara 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arouca Santa Clara
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Santa Clara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arouca's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Santa Clara let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Arouca stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arouca VS Santa Clara
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Arouca
(Home) 08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1 Arouca
01 Aug
Lusitania FC
0 : 2 Arouca
25 Jul
Santa Clara
3 : 0 Arouca
22 Jul
Famalicao
0 : 0 Arouca
18 Jul
Feirense
0 : 0 Arouca
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Arouca
3 : 1 Tondela
02 May
Arouca
2 : 2 Santa Clara
19 Apr
Arouca
1 : 0 Estrela da Amadora
06 Apr
Arouca
3 : 2 Estoril
14 Mar
Arouca
1 : 2 Benfica
Page 1 of 3
Santa Clara
(Away) 10 Aug
Santa Clara
2 : 2 Nacional
25 Jul
Santa Clara
3 : 0 Arouca
22 Jul
Santa Clara
1 : 1 FC Felgueiras
22 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 1 Moreirense
18 Jul
Santa Clara
2 : 0 Paredes
Page 1 of 6
16 May
FC Porto
1 : 0 Santa Clara
02 May
Arouca
2 : 2 Santa Clara
18 Apr
Casa Pia
0 : 0 Santa Clara
03 Apr
Sporting CP
4 : 2 Santa Clara
15 Mar
AFS
0 : 1 Santa Clara
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
