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Arronches Benfica vs GS Loures

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arronches Benfica play GS Loures in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arronches Benfica averaged 1.06 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. GS Loures averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Arronches Benfica won 0, GS Loures won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 19, 2023 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Arronches Benfica and 0.81 for GS Loures. This points to a Arronches Benfica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Arronches Benfica
26%
Draws
34%
GS Loures
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Arronches Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Arronches Benfica picked up more points recently compared to GS Loures.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Arronches Benfica Clean Sheet 26%
GS Loures Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arronches Benfica GS Loures
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 15 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.06 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.52

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Arronches Benfica vs GS Loures
1:2
Dec 4, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GS Loures vs Arronches Benfica
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arronches Benfica 41 / 100
GS Loures 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arronches Benfica GS Loures

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Arronches Benfica or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arronches Benfica attacking → ← attacking GS Loures

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arronches Benfica scored in 64% of their last 33 games.

GS Loures let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Arronches Benfica went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

GS Loures lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 34
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
11º Dezembro25155537:1950
2Pero Pinheiro25157434:2449
3Santarem25139340:1448
4Marinhense25126731:2442
5SB Castelo Branco251010533:2740
6Mortagua FC2599741:3836
7Sertanense2599730:2536
8Sintrense25109734:2536
9GD Coruchense2589930:2830
10Uniao Da Serra25931331:4030
11GS Loures25671226:4125
12Arronches Benfica25541615:3919
13Alcains25421923:4714
14Rio Maior SC010120:00