Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025

Marinhense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arronches Benfica play Marinhense in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arronches Benfica averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Marinhense averaged 1 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, Arronches Benfica won 1, Marinhense won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 23, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Arronches Benfica and 0.68 for Marinhense. This points to a Arronches Benfica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Arronches Benfica

29%

Draws

28%

Marinhense

Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Arronches Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Arronches Benfica picked up more points recently compared to Marinhense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 0.68 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 57%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

Arronches Benfica Clean Sheet 28%

Marinhense Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 51%

Second Half Goal 54%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Arronches Benfica	Marinhense
Matches Played	30	35
Wins	15	10
Draws	9	11
Losses	6	14
Goals Scored	1.1	1
Goals Conceded	0.7	1.34

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Arronches Benfica vs Marinhense

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Oct 27, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Marinhense vs Arronches Benfica

Possession: 53% - 57% Cards: 0 - 4

2:1

Mar 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Marinhense vs Arronches Benfica

Possession: 42% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

3:1

Nov 27, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Arronches Benfica vs Marinhense

Possession: 43% - 46% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arronches Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Marinhense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23

Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arronches Benfica 44 / 100

Marinhense 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Arronches Benfica Marinhense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Arronches Benfica or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.9%

3.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arronches Benfica attacking → ← attacking Marinhense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arronches Benfica scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Marinhense let in goals in 71% of their last 35 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Arronches Benfica went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Marinhense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 41

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	O Elvas CAD	26	20	5	1	41:10	65
2	Fatima	26	14	7	5	30:12	49
3	Arronches Benfica	26	13	9	4	27:17	48
4	GD Peniche	26	10	9	7	31:23	39
5	Os Marialvas	26	9	10	7	30:28	37
6	Mortagua FC	26	8	13	5	23:21	37
7	Marinhense	26	9	9	8	24:21	36
8	Alverca B	26	9	8	9	28:25	35
9	SB Castelo Branco	26	8	10	8	23:21	34
10	SC Pombal	26	8	8	10	29:34	32
11	Uniao de Coimbra	26	6	7	13	26:44	25
12	Sertanense	26	4	9	13	23:33	21
13	Alcains	26	4	6	16	17:36	18
14	Pero Pinheiro	26	2	6	18	12:39	12