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Arroyo vs CD Diocesano

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Cortes Gallego K.
81' Event
Mena I.
88' Event
Castro Ramos F.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 game between Arroyo and CD Diocesano finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Diocesano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Arroyo
30%
Draws
58%
CD Diocesano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CD Diocesano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • CD Diocesano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Arroyo Clean Sheet 20%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arroyo CD Diocesano
Matches Played 35 36
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 10
Losses 20 16
Goals Scored 1 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs CD Diocesano
1:2
Dec 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Arroyo
0:0
Jan 28, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Arroyo
1:1
Sep 17, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs CD Diocesano
0:1
Mar 6, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Arroyo
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arroyo Compare

Top Goalscorer Cortes Gallego K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

CD Diocesano Compare

Top Goalscorer Mena I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castro Ramos F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arroyo 32 / 100
CD Diocesano 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arroyo CD Diocesano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Diocesano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arroyo scored in 60% of their last 35 games.

CD Diocesano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 36 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Arroyo has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS CD Diocesano
0 Goals Scored 0.38
0 Goals Conceded 2.13
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arroyo

(Home)
11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2
CD Calamonte
04 May
Montijo
1 : 0
Arroyo
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4
SP Villafranca
17 Apr
Moralo
5 : 0
Arroyo
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2
CD Diocesano
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CD Diocesano

(Away)
10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4
SP Villafranca
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1
CD Diocesano
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
CD Diocesano
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1
Gevora
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 23 6 5 73:22 75
2 CD Azuaga 34 20 11 3 65:28 71
3 Jaraiz 34 21 6 7 65:40 69
4 AD Llerenense 34 21 5 8 58:28 68
5 CD Badajoz 34 17 12 5 54:20 63
6 CD Diocesano 34 17 7 10 58:38 58
7 Santa Amalia 34 16 6 12 31:31 54
8 Jerez CF 34 14 9 11 50:48 51
9 SP Villafranca 34 14 5 15 55:55 47
10 Moralo 34 13 7 14 52:50 46
11 Montijo 34 11 12 11 35:34 45
12 Pueblonuevo 34 9 9 16 42:71 36
13 CD Calamonte 34 8 9 17 36:48 33
14 Puebla de la Calzada 34 7 11 16 35:56 32
15 Castuera 34 7 8 19 46:64 29
16 CF Trujillo 34 6 10 18 32:63 28
17 Arroyo 34 5 7 22 32:70 22
18 Olivenza FC 34 3 8 23 26:79 17
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)