Sport Picks

Montenegro

Prva Crnogorska Liga 2025/2026 Stadion u Parku

Mornar Bar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arsenal Tivat play Mornar Bar in the Prva Crnogorska Liga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arsenal Tivat averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Mornar Bar averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. In past meetings, Arsenal Tivat won 1, Mornar Bar won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.63 for Arsenal Tivat and 1.88 for Mornar Bar. This points to a Mornar Bar double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%

Arsenal Tivat

26%

Draws

46%

Mornar Bar

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Mornar Bar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Arsenal Tivat picked up more points recently compared to Mornar Bar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.63 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 60%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Arsenal Tivat Clean Sheet 10%

Mornar Bar Clean Sheet 21%

First Half Goal 54%

Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Arsenal Tivat	Mornar Bar
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	17
Draws	5	7
Losses	15	6
Goals Scored	0.97	1.23
Goals Conceded	1.6	0.57
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Prva Crnogorska Liga

Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar Bar

Possession: 53% - 45% Cards: 1 - 3

0:1

Feb 21, 2026 Prva Crnogorska Liga

Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat

Possession: 56% - 44% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Oct 8, 2025 Prva Crnogorska Liga

Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar Bar

Possession: 59% - 59% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Aug 10, 2025 Prva Crnogorska Liga

Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat

Possession: 54% - 47% Cards: 2 - 2

2:2

May 14, 2025 Prva Crnogorska Liga

Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar Bar

Possession: 55% - 42% Cards: 0 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal Tivat Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Mornar Bar Compare

Top Goalscorer Skrijelj D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tivat 27 / 100

Mornar Bar 46 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Arsenal Tivat Mornar Bar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mornar Bar or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +40%

5.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arsenal Tivat attacking → ← attacking Mornar Bar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal Tivat scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Mornar Bar let in goals in 43% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Arsenal Tivat went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Mornar Bar lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 58

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sutjeska	36	22	6	8	61:36	72
2	Mornar Bar	36	20	9	7	51:29	69
3	Petrovac	36	13	12	11	44:36	51
4	Decic	36	14	9	13	43:45	51
5	Buducnost	36	13	9	14	36:35	48
6	Mladost DG	36	14	4	18	49:54	46
7	Arsenal Tivat	36	12	10	14	36:46	46
8	Jezero	36	10	11	15	38:48	41
9	Bokelj	36	8	12	16	38:48	36
10	Jedinstvo	36	9	8	19	30:49	35