Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arsenal Tula vs Fakel Voronezh

Russia Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Stadion Arsenal, Tula
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Turishchev M.
28' Event
Turishchev M.
34'
Gabaraev A.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2025/2026 game between Arsenal Tula and Fakel Voronezh finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fakel Voronezh.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Arsenal Tula
44%
Draws
20%
Fakel Voronezh
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Fakel Voronezh carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular FNL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 15%
Fakel Voronezh Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Tula Fakel Voronezh
Matches Played 25 28
Wins 6 12
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Fakel Voronezh
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Russian Cup
Fakel Voronezh vs Arsenal Tula
2:3
Sep 8, 2025 FNL
Fakel Voronezh vs Arsenal Tula
1:0
Feb 21, 2025 Club Friendly
Arsenal Tula vs Fakel Voronezh
1:1
Jul 6, 2024 Club Friendly
Fakel Voronezh vs Arsenal Tula
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal Tula Compare

Top Goalscorer Reyes E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Fakel Voronezh Compare

Top Goalscorer Turishchev M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tula 35 / 100
Fakel Voronezh 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Tula Fakel Voronezh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arsenal Tula scored in 72% of their last 25 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Arsenal Tula has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Fakel Voronezh has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Tula VS Fakel Voronezh
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal Tula

(Home)
19 Jul
Arsenal Tula
0 : 1
Neftekhimik
13 Jul
Arsenal Tula
2 : 1
Tekstilshtik
04 Jul
CSKA Moscow
1 : 1
Arsenal Tula
26 Jun
PFC Sochi
3 : 3
Arsenal Tula
21 Jun
Arsenal Tula
1 : 1
S. Kostroma
Page 1 of 5

Fakel Voronezh

(Away)
25 Jul
Fakel Voronezh
1 : 2
Dynamo Makhachkala
15 Jul
FK Rostov
2 : 1
Fakel Voronezh
11 Jul
Akron Togliatti
1 : 1
Fakel Voronezh
07 Jul
Fakel Voronezh
3 : 1
FK Rostov
16 May
Ulyanovsk
0 : 3
Fakel Voronezh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rodina Moscow341911458:2868
2Fakel Voronezh34208644:2268
3Ural34187951:3161
4R. Volgograd341511847:2656
5Kamaz341213946:3449
6Yenisey3413101137:3549
7S. Kostroma341213946:4149
8Shinnik Yaroslavl341115834:2848
9Torpedo Moscow3412101237:3946
10Chelyabinsk3410141042:4044
11Neftekhimik3410131140:4143
12SKA Khabarovsk3410121237:4542
13Arsenal Tula348151142:4439
14Ulyanovsk349101535:4837
15Ufa349101532:4037
16Chernomorets Novorossijsk34981737:4935
17Saratov345111816:4426
18FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye34572230:7622
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)