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Arsenal Tula vs Ulyanovsk

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Khabibullin A.
39' Event
Khabibullin A.
46'
Sub
Magomedov R. In: Kolyshev A.
Out: Magomedov R.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Arsenal Tula and Ulyanovsk finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ulyanovsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Arsenal Tula
22%
Draws
18%
Ulyanovsk
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Arsenal Tula

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Arsenal Tula haven't matched Ulyanovsk's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Arsenal Tula taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 20%
Ulyanovsk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Tula Ulyanovsk
Matches Played 25 29
Wins 6 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.13 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Arsenal Tula vs Ulyanovsk
1:2
Mar 9, 2026 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ulyanovsk
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula
2:1
Apr 15, 2023 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula
0:0
Sep 25, 2022 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ulyanovsk
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal Tula Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogdanets K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Ulyanovsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Khabibullin A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tula 58 / 100
Ulyanovsk 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Tula Ulyanovsk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal Tula's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 25 recent games.

Ulyanovsk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Arsenal Tula stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Tula VS Ulyanovsk
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%