Sport Picks
Match Events
21'
21'
Malkevich V.
46'
46'
Sub
Enin I. In: Brnovic M.
Out: Enin I.
59'
59'
Sub
Mamin A. In: Karapuzov V.
Out: Mamin A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this FNL matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
13%
35%
52%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ural
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ural have won more games recently than Arsenal Tula.
- Ural are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 10%
Ural Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arsenal Tula | Ural |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 13 |
| Draws | 11 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ural
2:2
Mar 15, 2026 FNL
Ural vs Arsenal Tula
2:0
Oct 24, 2025 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ural
1:2
Mar 24, 2025 FNL
Ural vs Arsenal Tula
0:0
Sep 16, 2024 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs Ural
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arsenal Tula Compare
Top Goalscorer Reyes E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Melekestsev T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Ural Compare
Top Goalscorer Malkevich V.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ishkov I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arsenal Tula 22 / 100
Ural 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arsenal Tula Ural
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ural Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Arsenal Tula scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Ural has conceded goals in 52% of their last 29 outings.
Recent resilience: Arsenal Tula stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arsenal Tula VS Ural
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Arsenal Tula
(Home) 16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 SKA Khabarovsk
08 Sept
Tekstilshtik
1 : 0 Arsenal Tula
05 Sept
Ulyanovsk
3 : 0 Arsenal Tula
29 Aug
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 Ural
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 SKA Khabarovsk
29 Aug
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 Ural
20 Aug
Arsenal Tula
2 : 1 R. Volgograd
02 Aug
Arsenal Tula
1 : 0 Torpedo Moscow
19 Jul
Arsenal Tula
0 : 1 Neftekhimik
Page 1 of 3
Ural
(Away) 18 Sept
Neftekhimik
0 : 1 Ural
14 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1 : 1 Ural
10 Sept
Luki-Energiya
2 : 1 Ural
06 Sept
Ural
2 : 0 Kamaz
29 Aug
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 Ural
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Neftekhimik
0 : 1 Ural
14 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1 : 1 Ural
10 Sept
Luki-Energiya
2 : 1 Ural
29 Aug
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 Ural
14 Aug
R. Volgograd
1 : 1 Ural
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 36:14 | 31 |
| 2 | S. Kostroma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15:8 | 24 |
| 3 | PFC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 4 | Veles Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:14 | 23 |
| 5 | Ural | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18:5 | 22 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moscow | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21:9 | 20 |
| 7 | R. Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20:14 | 17 |
| 8 | Ufa | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16:13 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 15:13 | 15 |
| 10 | Yenisey | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:19 | 13 |
| 11 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12:22 | 13 |
| 12 | Neftekhimik | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7:15 | 12 |
| 13 | Chelyabinsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:18 | 11 |
| 14 | Ulyanovsk | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14:17 | 11 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9:20 | 10 |
| 16 | Kamaz | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshtik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8:19 | 7 |
| 18 | SKA Khabarovsk | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11:23 | 5 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
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