Sport Picks
Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & H2H Stats
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 Emirates Stadium, London 
Match Events
36'
36'
Eze E.
Assist: Trossard L.
46'
46'
Palacios E.
60'
60'
Sub
Terrier M. In: Tillman M.
Out: Terrier M.
AI Match Summary
Arsenal in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Arsenal lately — more wins on the board than Bayer Leverkusen.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Arsenal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Arsenal, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Arsenal Clean Sheet 16%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arsenal | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 19 | 15 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 8 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.53 | 2.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 17, 2026 Champions League
Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen
2:0
Mar 11, 2026 Champions League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
1:1
Aug 7, 2024 Club Friendly
Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen
4:1
Feb 27, 2002 Champions League
Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen
4:1
Feb 19, 2002 Champions League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arsenal Compare
Top Goalscorer Eze E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rice D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Bayer Leverkusen Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arsenal 31 / 100
Bayer Leverkusen 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arsenal Bayer Leverkusen
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Bayer Leverkusen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arsenal found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Bayer Leverkusen conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.
Recent resilience: Arsenal stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arsenal VS Bayer Leverkusen
2 Goals Scored 2.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Arsenal
(Home) 19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0 Arsenal
15 Sept
Ipswich
2 : 4 Arsenal
12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2 Arsenal
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1 Arsenal
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
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06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
21 Aug
Arsenal
3 : 0 Coventry
16 Aug
Arsenal
3 : 0 Manchester City
12 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 1 Como
09 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 3 Dortmund
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Bayer Leverkusen
(Away) 20 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 RB Leipzig
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0 Celje
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0 Union Berlin
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
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12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
22 Aug
Wehen
0 : 4 Bayer Leverkusen
15 Aug
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Bayer Leverkusen
12 Aug
Nottingham
2 : 1 Bayer Leverkusen
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1
