Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arsimi vs Shkupi

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Ramadani A.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Redjepi B.
46'
Sub
Huric M. In: Osmani F.
Out: Huric M.

AI Match Summary

The 1. MFL 2025/2026 game between Arsimi and Shkupi finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arsimi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Arsimi
15%
Draws
0%
Shkupi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsimi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arsimi come out ahead of Shkupi on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Arsimi's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular 1. MFL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Arsimi have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Arsimi Clean Sheet 20%
Shkupi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsimi Shkupi
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 0
Draws 5 1
Losses 11 27
Goals Scored 1.24 0.36
Goals Conceded 1.48 4.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.14
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 1. MFL
Arsimi vs Shkupi
5:1
Feb 22, 2026 1. MFL
Shkupi vs Arsimi
0:3
Feb 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Arsimi vs Shkupi
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 1. MFL
Arsimi vs Shkupi
4:2
Jul 30, 2025 Club Friendly
Shkupi vs Arsimi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsimi Compare

Top Goalscorer Osmani F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Redjepi B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Shkupi Compare

Top Goalscorer Nuhija N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsimi 85 / 100
Shkupi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsimi Shkupi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arsimi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shkupi let in goals in 96% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Away concern: Shkupi has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Arsimi found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Arsimi VS Shkupi
1.63 Goals Scored 0.14
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.86
75% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 43%
50% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsimi

(Home)
29 Aug
Arsimi
0 : 0
FK Skopje
22 Aug
Shkendija Haracine
0 : 2
Arsimi
14 Aug
Arsimi
1 : 0
Bashkimi
08 Aug
Bregalnica Stip
4 : 0
Arsimi
01 Aug
Arsimi
4 : 1
Teteks
Page 1 of 6

Shkupi

(Away)
30 Aug
Shkupi
1 : 3
Teteks
22 Aug
Kozuf Gevgelija
2 : 0
Shkupi
15 Aug
Shkupi
0 : 2
Detonit Plackovica
24 May
Brera Strumica
6 : 0
Shkupi
16 May
Shkupi
0 : 7
Rabotnicki
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vardar 33 26 5 2 80:21 83
2 Shkendija Tetovo 33 23 5 5 67:30 74
3 Struga 33 19 5 9 68:28 62
4 Sileks 33 16 5 12 59:36 53
5 Tikves 33 14 6 13 59:47 48
6 Arsimi 33 13 7 13 50:53 46
7 Bashkimi 33 11 9 13 40:54 42
8 Pelister 33 10 10 13 41:42 40
9 Brera Strumica 33 10 10 13 46:56 40
10 Makedonija GP 33 9 7 17 42:57 34
11 Rabotnicki 33 9 6 18 45:58 33
12 Shkupi 33 0 1 32 15:130 1
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL (Main)