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Arsimi vs Vardar

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL 2025/2026
Arsimi Logo

Arsimi

1 - 0
FT
Vardar Logo

Vardar

Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Velija B.
43' Event
Goni M.
46'
Sub
Babunski D. In: Castaneda D.
Out: Babunski D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arsimi in this 1. MFL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arsimi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Arsimi
15%
Draws
42%
Vardar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsimi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vardar lately — more wins on the board than Arsimi.
  • Arsimi are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Arsimi Clean Sheet 10%
Vardar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsimi Vardar
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 17
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.21 2
Goals Conceded 1.9 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 1. MFL
Arsimi vs Vardar
1:0
Feb 11, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Arsimi
5:1
Sep 18, 2025 1. MFL
Arsimi vs Vardar
1:4
Jul 12, 2023 Club Friendly
Vardar vs Arsimi
1:1
Feb 18, 2023 2. MFL
Vardar vs Arsimi
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsimi Compare

Top Goalscorer Goni M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Vardar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsimi 34 / 100
Vardar 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsimi Vardar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Arsimi scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Difficult form: Vardar registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Vardar let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Arsimi VS Vardar
1.63 Goals Scored 2
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsimi

(Home)
08 Aug
Bregalnica Stip
4 : 0
Arsimi
01 Aug
Arsimi
4 : 1
Teteks
24 Jul
Tikves
5 : 1
Arsimi
19 Jul
FK Skopje
2 : 1
Arsimi
16 Jul
Kamjani
2 : 4
Arsimi
Page 1 of 6

Vardar

(Away)
09 Aug
Vardar
0 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
28 Jul
Riga FC
5 : 2
Vardar
25 Jul
Vardar
2 : 0
Bregalnica Stip
22 Jul
Vardar
2 : 3
Riga FC
14 Jul
KuPS
2 : 3
Vardar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vardar 33 26 5 2 80:21 83
2 Shkendija Tetovo 33 23 5 5 67:30 74
3 Struga 33 19 5 9 68:28 62
4 Sileks 33 16 5 12 59:36 53
5 Tikves 33 14 6 13 59:47 48
6 Arsimi 33 13 7 13 50:53 46
7 Bashkimi 33 11 9 13 40:54 42
8 Pelister 33 10 10 13 41:42 40
9 Brera Strumica 33 10 10 13 46:56 40
10 Makedonija GP 33 9 7 17 42:57 34
11 Rabotnicki 33 9 6 18 45:58 33
12 Shkupi 33 0 1 32 15:130 1
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL (Main)