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Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda Prediction & H2H Stats

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Graham L. In: Massicot D.
Out: Graham L.
49'
Bramble T. J. E.
55'
Martis B.

AI Match Summary

Aruba in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aruba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Aruba
15%
Draws
7%
Antigua and Barbuda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aruba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aruba lately — more wins on the board than Antigua and Barbuda.
  • 78% — that's where the model lands on Aruba taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Aruba Clean Sheet 20%
Antigua and Barbuda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aruba Antigua and Barbuda
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 1.55 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.93 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 23, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda
1:0
Nov 12, 2025 CONCACAF Series
Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba
0:0
Nov 18, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda
2:3
Sep 9, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba
2:1
Mar 23, 2016 Caribbean Cup
Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Molina M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Antigua and Barbuda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aruba 85 / 100
Antigua and Barbuda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aruba Antigua and Barbuda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aruba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aruba scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Antigua and Barbuda conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Aruba stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aruba VS Antigua and Barbuda
1.38 Goals Scored 0.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aruba

(Home)
23 Sept
Aruba
1 : 0
Antigua and Barbuda
07 Jun
Curacao
4 : 0
Aruba
29 Mar
Aruba
4 : 1
Liechtenstein
26 Mar
Aruba
4 : 1
Macau
15 Nov
Barbados
0 : 3
Aruba
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Antigua and Barbuda

(Away)
23 Sept
Aruba
1 : 0
Antigua and Barbuda
18 Nov
Antigua and Barbuda
1 : 4
Guyana
12 Nov
Antigua and Barbuda
0 : 0
Aruba
11 Jun
Honduras
2 : 0
Antigua and Barbuda
06 Jun
Antigua and Barbuda
0 : 1
Cuba
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