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Aruba vs Martinique - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League
Thu, Nov 12, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the CONCACAF Nations League. This one's hard to separate. Aruba have averaged 1.63 scored and 1.77 conceded recently, against Martinique's 1.03 scored and 1.33 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 1.13) point toward Aruba. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Aruba
15%
Draws
26%
Martinique
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aruba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Aruba have won more games recently than Martinique.
  • Model gives Aruba a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Aruba have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Aruba Clean Sheet 20%
Martinique Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aruba Martinique
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 4 10
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.63 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.77 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aruba 67 / 100
Martinique 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aruba Martinique

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aruba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aruba found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Martinique's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Aruba has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Martinique registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aruba VS Martinique
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aruba

(Home)
06 Oct
Antigua and Barbuda
3 : 2
Aruba
04 Oct
Aruba
3 : 2
Anguilla
29 Sept
Anguilla
0 : 2
Aruba
23 Sept
Aruba
1 : 0
Antigua and Barbuda
07 Jun
Curacao
4 : 0
Aruba
Page 1 of 6

Martinique

(Away)
05 Oct
Martinique
1 : 1
El Salvador
03 Oct
Martinique
2 : 1
Honduras
28 Sept
Suriname
2 : 1
Martinique
26 Sept
El Salvador
3 : 1
Martinique
29 Mar
Martinique
0 : 1
El Salvador
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Martinique -
Aruba -
Trinidad & Tobago -
Antigua and Barbuda -
El Salvador -
Saint Martin -
Nicaragua -
Montserrat -