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Arucas vs CD Marino

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Valiente F. P.
13' Event
Pirri
30' Event
Valiente F. P.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between Arucas and CD Marino finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Marino.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Arucas
30%
Draws
12%
CD Marino
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Arucas have managed 0.97 goals a game lately — CD Marino are scoring more at 1.23.
  • Model gives Arucas a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Arucas Clean Sheet 68%
CD Marino Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arucas CD Marino
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 6
Draws 11 15
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
CD Marino vs Arucas
1:2
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs CD Marino
1:4
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
CD Marino vs Arucas
0:0
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs CD Marino
1:1
May 11, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs CD Marino
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Aythami
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

CD Marino Compare

Top Goalscorer Valiente F. P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pirri
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arucas 95 / 100
CD Marino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arucas CD Marino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arucas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arucas scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

CD Marino has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Arucas went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arucas VS CD Marino
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arucas

(Home)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
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CD Marino

(Away)
08 Aug
Tenerife B
4 : 1
CD Marino
26 Jul
CD Marino
0 : 6
Tenerife
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
01 May
Villa Santa Brigida
3 : 0
CD Marino
26 Apr
CD Marino
0 : 0
Union Sur Yaiza
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)