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Stadium Background

Arucas vs Ibarra

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Salgado S.
34' Event
Carbajal S.
60' Event
Medina J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 game between Arucas and Ibarra finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ibarra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Arucas
20%
Draws
51%
Ibarra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ibarra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Ibarra carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Arucas Clean Sheet 68%
Ibarra Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arucas Ibarra
Matches Played 37 31
Wins 10 17
Draws 11 4
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 1.24 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Ibarra
1:2
Oct 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs Arucas
2:0
Apr 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs Arucas
1:1
Nov 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Ibarra
2:2
Apr 23, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Ibarra vs Arucas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Salgado S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Ibarra Compare

Top Goalscorer Carbajal S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Medina J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arucas 41 / 100
Ibarra 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arucas Ibarra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arucas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arucas's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

Ibarra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Arucas remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arucas VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arucas

(Home)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
Page 1 of 8

Ibarra

(Away)
24 May
Tamaraceite
3 : 0
Ibarra
17 May
Ibarra
1 : 0
Tamaraceite
11 May
Ibarra
3 : 1
Tamaraceite
04 May
Las Palmas B
2 : 0
Ibarra
26 Apr
Ibarra
1 : 0
Herbania
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Las Palmas B 34 22 10 2 66:17 76
2 UD San Fernando 34 21 10 3 58:20 73
3 Tamaraceite 34 18 9 7 48:29 63
4 Ibarra 34 18 5 11 49:40 59
5 Mensajero 34 16 8 10 50:37 56
6 Lanzarote 34 16 7 11 56:33 55
7 Panaderia 34 13 11 10 45:39 50
8 CD Marino 34 12 11 11 43:45 47
9 Arucas 34 12 9 13 38:36 45
10 San Bartolome 34 10 15 9 43:35 45
11 Villa Santa Brigida 34 10 11 13 34:42 41
12 Herbania 34 10 10 14 33:41 40
13 CD Santa Ursula 34 10 10 14 29:42 40
14 San Miguel 34 10 7 17 36:54 37
15 CD Buzanada 34 9 5 20 27:54 32
16 Estrella 34 7 9 18 30:57 30
17 Los Llanos 34 7 7 20 25:52 28
18 Union Viera 34 3 10 21 28:65 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2024/2025 (Play Offs)