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Arys vs Aktobe 2

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Vaganov M.
Assist: Zhanbyrbay A.
39' Event
Mansurov B.
Assist: Malikov B.
74' Event
Begimov A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Arys and Aktobe 2 finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arys.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Arys
20%
Draws
34%
Aktobe 2
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Arys haven't matched Aktobe 2's recent run of results.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Arys taking it.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Arys Clean Sheet 13%
Aktobe 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arys Aktobe 2
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 10
Draws 4 5
Losses 19 15
Goals Scored 1.07 1.9
Goals Conceded 2.17 2.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 First League
Arys vs Aktobe 2
4:1
Jun 25, 2026 First League
Aktobe 2 vs Arys
3:1
Sep 20, 2024 First League
Aktobe 2 vs Arys
0:1
May 3, 2024 First League
Arys vs Aktobe 2
2:3
Oct 7, 2023 First League
Arys vs Aktobe 2
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Vaganov M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mansurov B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Aktobe 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arys 75 / 100
Aktobe 2 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arys Aktobe 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arys Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aktobe 2 let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Arys scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Arys stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arys VS Aktobe 2
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Arys

(Home)
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
15 Aug
Khan Tengri
0 : 0
Arys
Page 1 of 6

Aktobe 2

(Away)
10 Sept
Aktobe 2
1 : 3
Turan
03 Sept
Akademiya Ontustik
2 : 1
Aktobe 2
28 Aug
Aktobe 2
1 : 0
Jaiyq
20 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
2 : 5
Aktobe 2
13 Aug
Aktobe 2
1 : 6
Shakhter Karagandy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 22 20 1 1 64:8 61
2 Kairat Almaty 2 22 16 5 1 64:12 53
3 Turan 22 15 2 5 47:20 47
4 Akademiya Ontustik 22 13 3 6 36:27 42
5 Jaiyq 22 9 3 10 21:26 30
6 FC Astana 2 22 9 3 10 35:42 30
7 Taraz 22 8 5 9 30:32 29
8 FC Ekibastuz 22 7 5 10 30:46 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 22 7 4 11 29:38 25
10 Khan Tengri 22 7 4 11 29:42 25
11 Aktobe 2 22 6 5 11 37:65 23
12 Arys 22 6 3 13 25:42 21
13 Tobol 2 22 3 4 15 37:57 13
14 Yelimay Semey 2 22 3 3 16 16:43 12
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