Sport Picks
AS Marsa vs Etoile Sahel
Tunisia
Ligue Professionnelle 1 Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium, La Marsa 
Match Events
12'
12'
Sub
Khaloui M. In: Gasmi A.
Out: Khaloui M.
12'
12'
Gasmi A.
23'
23'
Mani N.
AI Match Summary
The Ligue Professionnelle 1 game between AS Marsa and Etoile Sahel finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Marsa.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AS Marsa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- AS Marsa have managed 1.07 goals a game lately — Etoile Sahel are scoring more at 1.1.
- AS Marsa are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Regular Ligue Professionnelle 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Etoile Sahel have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 68%
Etoile Sahel Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AS Marsa | Etoile Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 12 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 15 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Etoile Sahel
1:0
Apr 25, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs AS Marsa
1:0
Oct 29, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Etoile Sahel
0:2
Jun 12, 2016 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Etoile Sahel
0:3
Jan 6, 2016 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs AS Marsa
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AS Marsa Compare
Top Goalscorer Mani N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Etoile Sahel Compare
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AS Marsa 50 / 100
Etoile Sahel 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AS Marsa Etoile Sahel
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AS Marsa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Etoile Sahel let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Solid form: AS Marsa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Etoile Sahel lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
AS Marsa VS Etoile Sahel
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
AS Marsa
(Home) 12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0 AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
09 May
AS Marsa
0 : 3 CS Sfaxien
30 Apr
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Zarzis
03 Apr
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Olympique Beja
Page 1 of 3
Etoile Sahel
(Away) 12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Etoile Sahel
1 : 1 Jeunesse Sportive
30 Aug
Etoile Sahel
2 : 1 Metlaoui
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2 Etoile Sahel
14 May
CS Sfaxien
3 : 1 Etoile Sahel
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2 Etoile Sahel
14 May
CS Sfaxien
3 : 1 Etoile Sahel
04 May
Zarzis
3 : 1 Etoile Sahel
29 Apr
Metlaoui
2 : 0 Etoile Sahel
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Africain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 9 |
| 2 | Esperance Tunis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:6 | 9 |
| 3 | Ben Guerdane | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 4 | CS Sfaxien | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 5 | Monastir | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 6 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4:1 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 10 | Etoile Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 12 | Zarzis | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 13 | Metlaoui | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 14 | Olympique Beja | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:5 | 2 |
| 15 | Hamam-Sousse | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 16 | Hammam-Lif | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0:4 | 0 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
