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AS Marsa vs Stade Tunisien Prediction & H2H Stats

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Traidi A.
34' Event
Haboubi A.
(Penalty)
42' Event
Saafi Y.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 game between AS Marsa and Stade Tunisien finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stade Tunisien.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
AS Marsa
30%
Draws
37%
Stade Tunisien
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Stade Tunisien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AS Marsa come out ahead of Stade Tunisien on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 68%
Stade Tunisien Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Marsa Stade Tunisien
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 3 11
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.07 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Stade Tunisien
0:4
Sep 24, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Stade Tunisien vs AS Marsa
1:0
May 22, 2016 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Stade Tunisien vs AS Marsa
1:1
Dec 27, 2015 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Stade Tunisien
1:0
May 5, 2015 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Stade Tunisien
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Marsa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Stade Tunisien Compare

Top Goalscorer Saafi Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ouerghemmi W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Marsa 42 / 100
Stade Tunisien 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Marsa Stade Tunisien

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: AS Marsa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: AS Marsa scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Stade Tunisien's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

AS Marsa VS Stade Tunisien
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Marsa

(Home)
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0
Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1
AS Marsa
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0
PS Sakiet Eddaier
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0
AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2
AS Marsa
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Stade Tunisien

(Away)
12 Sept
Hamam-Sousse
1 : 3
Stade Tunisien
29 Aug
Monastir
2 : 1
Stade Tunisien
22 Aug
Stade Tunisien
1 : 1
CS Sfaxien
13 May
AS Gabes
0 : 1
Stade Tunisien
08 May
Stade Tunisien
0 : 0
Ben Guerdane
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Africain 30 19 9 2 43:10 66
2 Esperance Tunis 30 18 9 3 45:11 63
3 CS Sfaxien 30 18 8 4 44:13 62
4 Stade Tunisien 30 12 12 6 28:14 48
5 Monastir 30 11 12 7 28:19 45
6 Zarzis 30 11 8 11 30:28 41
7 Etoile Sahel 30 11 8 11 28:30 41
8 Metlaoui 30 9 13 8 19:25 40
9 Jeunesse Sportive 30 10 6 14 24:33 36
10 Ben Guerdane 30 8 11 11 18:22 35
11 AS Marsa 30 11 2 17 26:33 35
12 CA Bizertin 30 8 9 13 18:29 33
13 Olympique Beja 30 9 5 16 18:39 32
14 JS Kairouan 30 9 4 17 20:41 31
15 Soliman 30 6 9 15 15:31 27
16 AS Gabes 30 3 9 18 11:37 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)