Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AS Roma vs Atalanta

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Gasperini G.
46'
Sub
Scamacca G. In: Krstovic N.
Out: Scamacca G.
47' Event
Lourenco E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between AS Roma and Atalanta finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Roma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
AS Roma
20%
Draws
40%
Atalanta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • AS Roma's 2.07 goals per match outpaces what Atalanta have produced (1.55).
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on AS Roma taking it.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
AS Roma Clean Sheet 15%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Roma Atalanta
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 14 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 2.07 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Serie A
AS Roma vs Atalanta
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Serie A
AS Roma vs Atalanta
1:1
Jan 3, 2026 Serie A
Atalanta vs AS Roma
1:0
May 12, 2025 Serie A
Atalanta vs AS Roma
2:1
Dec 2, 2024 Serie A
AS Roma vs Atalanta
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Roma Compare

Top Goalscorer Hermoso M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Soule M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Atalanta Compare

Top Goalscorer Lourenco E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Roma 84 / 100
Atalanta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Roma Atalanta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Roma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Roma scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Atalanta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: AS Roma stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AS Roma VS Atalanta
2.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Roma

(Home)
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
24 Aug
AS Roma
4 : 0
Fiorentina
15 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 2
AS Roma
08 Aug
Brighton
3 : 0
AS Roma
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Atalanta

(Away)
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
27 Aug
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0 : 1
Atalanta
23 Aug
Atalanta
2 : 1
Sassuolo
20 Aug
Atalanta
0 : 0
Hapoel Tel Aviv
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lazio 4 3 1 0 6:3 10
2 AS Roma 3 3 0 0 10:1 9
3 Inter 3 3 0 0 8:3 9
4 Cagliari 4 3 0 1 4:2 9
5 AC Milan 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
6 Como 3 2 1 0 7:3 7
7 Frosinone 4 2 1 1 7:4 7
8 Juventus 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
9 Sassuolo 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
10 Napoli 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
11 Atalanta 4 2 0 2 5:5 6
12 Lecce 4 2 0 2 5:7 6
13 Udinese 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
14 Torino 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
15 Fiorentina 4 1 0 3 5:11 3
16 Parma 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
17 Bologna 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
18 Monza 4 0 1 3 6:11 1
19 Genoa 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
20 Venezia 4 0 0 4 4:11 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)