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AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Malen D.
Assist: Dybala P.
30'
Fagioli N.
39'
Hermoso M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between AS Roma and Fiorentina finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Roma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
AS Roma
30%
Draws
27%
Fiorentina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AS Roma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • AS Roma carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives AS Roma a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors AS Roma here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
AS Roma Clean Sheet 16%
Fiorentina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Roma Fiorentina
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 2.07 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 Serie A
AS Roma vs Fiorentina
4:0
May 4, 2026 Serie A
AS Roma vs Fiorentina
4:0
Oct 5, 2025 Serie A
Fiorentina vs AS Roma
1:2
May 4, 2025 Serie A
AS Roma vs Fiorentina
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Serie A
Fiorentina vs AS Roma
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Roma Compare

Top Goalscorer Malen D.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Pisilli N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Fiorentina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Roma 84 / 100
Fiorentina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Roma Fiorentina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Roma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AS Roma scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: AS Roma remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Fiorentina has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

AS Roma VS Fiorentina
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Roma

(Home)
19 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 2
Inter
14 Sept
Torino
0 : 2
AS Roma
10 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
AS Roma
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
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Fiorentina

(Away)
20 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 1
Napoli
15 Sept
Fiorentina
3 : 0
Pisa
11 Sept
Venezia
2 : 4
Fiorentina
05 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 2
Torino
29 Aug
Fiorentina
0 : 3
Frosinone
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15:8 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5:2 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 10:4 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5:7 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5:10 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8:11 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8:12 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6:12 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4:13 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)