Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AS Roma W vs Fiorentina W

Italy Italy

Serie A Women Stadio Tre Fontane
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AS Roma W play Fiorentina W in the Serie A Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, AS Roma W averaged 1.88 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. Fiorentina W averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, AS Roma W won 2, Fiorentina W won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 15, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for AS Roma W and 1.00 for Fiorentina W. This points to a AS Roma W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
AS Roma W
27%
Draws
29%
Fiorentina W
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: AS Roma W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • AS Roma W picked up more points recently compared to Fiorentina W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
AS Roma W Clean Sheet 23%
Fiorentina W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Roma W Fiorentina W
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 23 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.88 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie A Women
AS Roma W vs Fiorentina W
1:1
Nov 7, 2025 Serie A Women
Fiorentina W vs AS Roma W
5:2
May 10, 2025 Serie A Women
Fiorentina W vs AS Roma W
0:1
Mar 29, 2025 Serie A Women
AS Roma W vs Fiorentina W
2:0
Feb 9, 2025 Serie A Women
Fiorentina W vs AS Roma W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Roma W Compare

Top Goalscorer Galli G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Fiorentina W Compare

Top Goalscorer Janogy M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Roma W 44 / 100
Fiorentina W 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Roma W Fiorentina W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: AS Roma W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AS Roma W attacking → ← attacking Fiorentina W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Roma W scored in 91% of their last 34 games.

Fiorentina W let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

AS Roma W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Fiorentina W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

76 Points in last 5 49
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1AS Roma W22174144:1955
2Inter W22135449:2644
3Juventus W22116533:1939
4Fiorentina W22106633:3036
5Lazio W22103931:3033
6AC Milan W2295831:2632
7Napoli W2288630:2532
8Como W2286824:2230
9Sassuolo W22461217:3418
10Ternana W22451319:4017
11Parma W222101016:3116
12Genoa W22241618:4310