Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AS Sora vs Vigor Senigallia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
De Feo G.
45' Event
Fili G.
90' Event
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between AS Sora and Vigor Senigallia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vigor Senigallia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
AS Sora
20%
Draws
52%
Vigor Senigallia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Vigor Senigallia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Vigor Senigallia are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
AS Sora Clean Sheet 12%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Sora Vigor Senigallia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 13
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.17 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Vigor Senigallia
1:2
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs AS Sora
0:2
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Vigor Senigallia
1:2
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs AS Sora
0:1
Mar 28, 2024 Serie D - Group F
AS Sora vs Vigor Senigallia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Sora Compare

Top Goalscorer Fili G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer De Feo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Sora 22 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Sora Vigor Senigallia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vigor Senigallia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

AS Sora went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

AS Sora's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

AS Sora VS Vigor Senigallia
0.88 Goals Scored 2.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Sora

(Home)
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2
AS Sora
26 Apr
AS Sora
2 : 1
Unipomezia
19 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 0
AS Sora
12 Apr
AS Sora
2 : 2
San Marino Calcio
02 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0
AS Sora
Page 1 of 6

Vigor Senigallia

(Away)
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
03 May
Unipomezia
3 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)