Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ASA vs SC Penedense

Brazil Brazil

Alagoano Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca, Arapiraca
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Tiago Mumu
Own Goal
30'
Dinda
35' Event
Alex Bruno

AI Match Summary

ASA in this Alagoano matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored ASA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
ASA
30%
Draws
23%
SC Penedense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: ASA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to ASA lately — more wins on the board than SC Penedense.
  • ASA are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Alagoano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors ASA here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 15%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
ASA Clean Sheet 68%
SC Penedense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASA SC Penedense
Matches Played 46 35
Wins 24 6
Draws 16 12
Losses 6 17
Goals Scored 1.3 0.51
Goals Conceded 0.54 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2026 Copa Alagoas
SC Penedense vs ASA
0:1
Feb 7, 2026 Alagoano
ASA vs SC Penedense
2:0
Jul 13, 2025 Serie D
SC Penedense vs ASA
0:1
May 3, 2025 Serie D
ASA vs SC Penedense
1:0
Apr 5, 2025 Club Friendly
SC Penedense vs ASA
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ASA Compare

Top Goalscorer Alex Bruno
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

SC Penedense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASA 77 / 100
SC Penedense 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASA SC Penedense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ASA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ASA found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (46 games).

SC Penedense let in goals in 66% of their last 35 matches.

ASA has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

SC Penedense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

ASA VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

ASA

(Home)
13 Sept
Uberlandia
1 : 1
ASA
06 Sept
ASA
0 : 2
Uberlandia
30 Aug
Gama
0 : 0
ASA
23 Aug
ASA
2 : 0
Gama
16 Aug
ASA
2 : 1
Goiatuba EC
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SC Penedense

(Away)
18 Mar
SC Penedense
2 : 2
Zumbi
02 Mar
SC Penedense
0 : 1
ASA
25 Feb
Londrina
1 : 0
SC Penedense
21 Feb
Miguelense
0 : 1
SC Penedense
07 Feb
ASA
2 : 0
SC Penedense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ASA 7 5 2 0 13:3 17
2 CSA 7 5 2 0 10:1 17
3 CRB 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
4 Murici 7 3 2 2 8:5 11
5 Cruzeiro Arapiraca 7 2 0 5 6:12 6
6 Coruripe 7 1 2 4 5:11 5
7 SC Penedense 7 1 2 4 2:8 5
8 Clube Sociedade Esportiva 7 1 1 5 6:10 4
Promotion - Alagoano (Play Offs)