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Ascoli vs Avellino

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ascoli host Avellino in the Serie B. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Avellino have shipped 1.39 goals a game lately, while Ascoli have conceded 0.85 and scored 1.74. Past meetings favor Ascoli slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 5, 2018, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.81, favoring Ascoli. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ascoli
20%
Draws
40%
Avellino
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ascoli come out ahead of Avellino on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Ascoli Clean Sheet 11%
Avellino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ascoli Avellino
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 17 14
Draws 4 4
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.74 2.16
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2018 Serie B
Ascoli vs Avellino
1:1
Dec 16, 2017 Serie B
Avellino vs Ascoli
1:1
Apr 25, 2017 Serie B
Ascoli vs Avellino
2:0
Dec 3, 2016 Serie B
Avellino vs Ascoli
1:2
Mar 12, 2016 Serie B
Ascoli vs Avellino
3:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ascoli 30 / 100
Avellino 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ascoli Avellino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ascoli found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Avellino's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

Ascoli has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ascoli VS Avellino
1.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ascoli

(Home)
12 Sept
Padova
1 : 0
Ascoli
05 Sept
Ascoli
1 : 0
Benevento
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
23 Aug
Verona
1 : 2
Ascoli
16 Aug
Genoa
4 : 1
Ascoli
Page 1 of 6

Avellino

(Away)
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
29 Aug
Avellino
3 : 0
Vicenza
22 Aug
Avellino
1 : 2
Arezzo
14 Aug
Monza
3 : 0
Avellino
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mantova 4 3 1 0 8:3 10
2 Palermo 4 3 1 0 8:4 10
3 Sudtirol 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
4 Avellino 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
5 Padova 4 2 1 1 4:4 7
6 Modena 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
7 Ascoli 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
8 Cesena 4 1 3 0 6:5 6
9 Pisa 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
10 Empoli 4 2 0 2 3:4 6
11 Arezzo 4 2 0 2 5:9 6
12 Vicenza 4 1 2 1 6:8 5
13 Benevento 4 1 1 2 5:5 4
14 Entella 4 1 1 2 7:6 4
15 Cremonese 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
16 Verona 4 1 1 2 8:6 4
17 Catanzaro 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
18 Juve Stabia 4 1 1 2 3:6 2
19 Carrarese 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
20 Sampdoria 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)