Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ascoli vs Perugia

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Gori G.
33' Event
D'Uffizi S.
46'
Sub
Bacchin L. In: Manzari G.
Out: Bacchin L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 game between Ascoli and Perugia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ascoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Ascoli
35%
Draws
30%
Perugia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Perugia haven't matched Ascoli's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ascoli's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Ascoli Clean Sheet 20%
Perugia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ascoli Perugia
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 18 8
Draws 4 11
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.89 1.18
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Ascoli vs Perugia
2:1
Sep 14, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Ascoli
0:2
Mar 3, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Ascoli
2:1
Oct 19, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Ascoli vs Perugia
0:1
Feb 11, 2023 Serie B
Ascoli vs Perugia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ascoli Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Uffizi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Perugia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ascoli 36 / 100
Perugia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ascoli Perugia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ascoli found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (27 games).

Perugia let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Ascoli has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ascoli VS Perugia
1.25 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 33%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Ascoli

(Home)
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
23 Aug
Verona
1 : 2
Ascoli
16 Aug
Genoa
4 : 1
Ascoli
08 Aug
Ascoli
3 : 1
Potenza
02 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 2
Lazio
Page 1 of 6

Perugia

(Away)
30 Aug
Vis Pesaro
2 : 2
Perugia
23 Aug
Perugia
1 : 0
Ostiamare
15 Aug
Perugia
1 : 2
Vis Pesaro
02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1
Grosseto
26 Apr
Forli FC
1 : 1
Perugia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arezzo 36 24 8 4 64:24 80
2 Ascoli 36 23 8 5 63:23 77
3 Ravenna 36 22 7 7 50:30 73
4 Campobasso 36 17 10 9 49:37 59
5 Juventus U23 36 14 11 11 46:43 53
6 Pianese 36 11 17 8 37:34 50
7 Pineto 36 13 11 12 42:45 50
8 Gubbio 36 11 15 10 31:32 48
9 Ternana 36 14 11 11 44:40 48
10 Vis Pesaro 36 11 13 12 38:36 46
11 Livorno 36 12 7 17 39:51 43
12 Forli FC 36 10 10 16 41:52 40
13 Carpi 36 10 10 16 35:48 40
14 Perugia 36 8 14 14 38:44 38
15 Guidonia 1937 36 8 14 14 30:36 38
16 Sambenedettese 36 8 13 15 30:37 37
17 Sassari Torres 36 6 18 12 32:45 36
18 Bra 36 6 14 16 37:54 32
19 US Pontedera 36 3 11 22 27:62 20
20 Rimini 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)