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ASD Modica Calcio vs Castrumfavara Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Reinero A.

AI Match Summary

ASD Modica Calcio in this Serie D - Group I matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored ASD Modica Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
ASD Modica Calcio
15%
Draws
12%
Castrumfavara
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: ASD Modica Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • ASD Modica Calcio haven't matched Castrumfavara's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
ASD Modica Calcio Clean Sheet 16%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASD Modica Calcio Castrumfavara
Matches Played 6 29
Wins 2 8
Draws 1 5
Losses 3 16
Goals Scored 1 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group I
ASD Modica Calcio vs Castrumfavara
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ASD Modica Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Reinero A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Castrumfavara Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASD Modica Calcio 31 / 100
Castrumfavara 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASD Modica Calcio Castrumfavara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castrumfavara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Castrumfavara's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

ASD Modica Calcio scored in 50% of their last 6 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

ASD Modica Calcio VS Castrumfavara
0.75 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

ASD Modica Calcio

(Home)
04 Oct
ASD Modica Calcio
3 : 0
Enna
27 Sept
Siracusa
1 : 0
ASD Modica Calcio
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Sambiase
1 : 0
ASD Modica Calcio
13 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
0 : 1
Reggina
Page 1 of 2

Castrumfavara

(Away)
04 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 0
Castrumfavara
27 Sept
Castrumfavara
0 : 1
Calcio Avola
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reggina 6 5 0 1 15:1 15
2 Vibonese 6 4 1 1 15:5 13
3 Sambiase 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Calcio Avola 6 4 0 2 9:10 12
5 Igea Virtus 6 3 2 1 14:11 11
6 Licata 6 3 2 1 8:8 11
7 Digiesse PraiaTortora 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
8 Milazzo 6 3 0 3 5:8 9
9 Athletic Palermo 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
10 Nissa 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 ASD Modica Calcio 6 2 1 3 6:5 7
12 Lamezia 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
13 Siracusa 6 3 2 1 8:5 4
14 Castrumfavara 6 1 1 4 5:7 4
15 Gela 6 1 2 3 4:6 4
16 USD Ragusa 6 0 2 4 4:9 2
17 Trapani 6 2 0 4 3:10 1
18 Enna 6 0 1 5 0:15 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)