Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ASD Ugento vs Costa Amalfi

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Grisley S.
29' Event
Ancora F.
45'
Cuomo E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 game between ASD Ugento and Costa Amalfi finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward ASD Ugento.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
ASD Ugento
20%
Draws
29%
Costa Amalfi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: ASD Ugento

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and ASD Ugento come out ahead of Costa Amalfi on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on ASD Ugento taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
ASD Ugento Clean Sheet 68%
Costa Amalfi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASD Ugento Costa Amalfi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 3
Draws 5 10
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 1.03 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Serie D - Group H
ASD Ugento vs Costa Amalfi
5:1
Sep 29, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Costa Amalfi vs ASD Ugento
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ASD Ugento Compare

Top Goalscorer Grisley S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ancora F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Costa Amalfi Compare

Top Goalscorer Esposito C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASD Ugento 68 / 100
Costa Amalfi 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASD Ugento Costa Amalfi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ASD Ugento Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Costa Amalfi conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: ASD Ugento scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

ASD Ugento went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

ASD Ugento VS Costa Amalfi
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

ASD Ugento

(Home)
11 May
ASD Ugento
0 : 1
Manfredonia
04 May
Virtus Francavilla
1 : 1
ASD Ugento
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Citta di Fasano
0 : 2
ASD Ugento
13 Apr
ASD Ugento
2 : 0
Martina Calcio
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Costa Amalfi

(Away)
04 May
Angri
3 : 1
Costa Amalfi
27 Apr
Costa Amalfi
1 : 4
Acerrana
17 Apr
Costa Amalfi
0 : 2
Gravina
12 Apr
Ischia
1 : 1
Costa Amalfi
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2
Matera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)