Sport Picks

England

FA Trophy 2024/2025

Hartley Wintney

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ashford United play Hartley Wintney in the FA Trophy 2024/2025. Ashford United are favorites here. Recently, Ashford United averaged 2.14 goals scored and 1.61 conceded. Hartley Wintney averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Ashford United won 1, Hartley Wintney won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 21, 2024 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.76 for Ashford United and 1.30 for Hartley Wintney. This points to a Ashford United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%

Ashford United

16%

Draws

21%

Hartley Wintney

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Ashford United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence

Ashford United picked up more points recently compared to Hartley Wintney.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.76 vs 1.30 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 63%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Ashford United Clean Sheet 19%

Hartley Wintney Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ashford United	Hartley Wintney
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	15	6
Draws	2	8
Losses	11	16
Goals Scored	2.14	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.61	1.83
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2024 FA Trophy

Ashford United vs Hartley Wintney

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ashford United 61 / 100

Hartley Wintney 21 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ashford United Hartley Wintney

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ashford United Win (1)

Secondary Pick Ashford United & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +14.7%

1.82

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.3%

1.75

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ashford United attacking → ← attacking Hartley Wintney

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ashford United scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Hartley Wintney let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Ashford United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Hartley Wintney lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 26

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.60

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40