Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Asteras Tripolis vs AEK

Greece Greece

Super League Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Majer L.
21' Event
Laskaris D.
Own Goal
31' Event
Bartolo J.
Assist: Macheda F.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Asteras Tripolis
35%
Draws
44%
AEK
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AEK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AEK lately — more wins on the board than Asteras Tripolis.
  • AEK are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and AEK have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Asteras Tripolis Clean Sheet 10%
AEK Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Asteras Tripolis AEK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 18
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 1.2 2.17
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Super League
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK
1:1
Jan 24, 2026 Super League
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK
0:1
Aug 31, 2025 Super League
AEK vs Asteras Tripolis
1:0
Feb 23, 2025 Super League
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK
0:3
Nov 9, 2024 Super League
AEK vs Asteras Tripolis
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Asteras Tripolis Compare

Top Goalscorer Bartolo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

AEK Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Asteras Tripolis 14 / 100
AEK 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Asteras Tripolis AEK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Asteras Tripolis found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Asteras Tripolis has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

AEK's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Asteras Tripolis VS AEK
1.5 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Asteras Tripolis

(Home)
20 Sept
OFI Crete
2 : 2
Asteras Tripolis
16 Sept
Niki Volos
0 : 3
Asteras Tripolis
13 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
AEK
10 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
Aris
07 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
0 : 2
Iraklis FC
Page 1 of 6

AEK

(Away)
20 Sept
Volos
1 : 2
AEK
17 Sept
AEK
8 : 1
Panserraikos
13 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
AEK
08 Sept
AEK
1 : 0
LASK Linz
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 12:2 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12:5 12
3 AEK 5 3 2 0 13:3 11
4 OFI Crete 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Olympiacos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 4:2 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 8:7 9
7 Aris 5 2 1 2 5:10 7
8 Iraklis FC 5 1 3 1 4:6 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 4:7 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 6:8 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 4:9 2
13 Volos 5 0 2 3 4:9 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 0:9 1
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Promotion - Super League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)